Weekly Equities Outlook: Sainsbury's, Currys and Constellation Brands

Sainsbury’s

With talk of supermarket price wars ramping up, Sainsbury's will release its results on Tuesday, July 1st. In April, Sainsbury's said it expected underlying operating profits to come in at 1 billion for the coming year, slightly down from the figure reported for the past year.

These numbers follow Tesco's recent trading update, which highlights the resilience seen in the first quarter, where the company increased its market share to 28% and also saw a 5% increase in like-for-like sales, with the food business contributing 5.9% of that total.

The warmer weather is contributing to a strong quarter; however, the question is whether Tesco's performance is at the expense of its rivals. There are some warning signs on the horizon. Recent Kantar data showed that Sainsbury's market share was unchanged in the three months to May compared to the same period a year ago at 15.1%

On the positive side, recent retail sales numbers indicate a tendency for people to spend more money on eating and drinking at home; however, staff costs are also on the rise following the increase in National Insurance contributions.

The share price is moving towards a yearly high and is not far from Neville singing COVID, suggesting that supermarket price war fears are not yet showing through in the price.

How to trade SBRY update?

Sainsbury's share price recovered from its April 215 rising above the 200 SMA to a peak of 292. The price has eased slightly to the 185 level, the 2023 and 2024 high, and is testing the 20 SMA, which has guided the price higher since early April.

The uptrend remains intact, and buyers will look to rise above 292 to fresh record highs.

Sellers will look for a break below 282, the 20 SMA. A break below here opens the door to 272, the June.

Curry’s final result preview

Curry’s, the electrical goods retailer, has seen its share prices perform well year to date, thanks to an upward revision to guidance back in April and the rejection of an opportunistic offer from activist investor Elliott last spring. As a result, shares are now up 20% since January.

Management now expects adjusted profit before tax to be £160 million, up from the previous guidance of £145 to 155 million. This figure was lifted further in May to 162 million. Group like-for-like sales are also expected to rise 2% and net cash is forecast to be £180 million by the end of the year.

The sector has seen some improvements over the last six months, with AO World also putting in a strong performance in its recent trading update; however, the outlook is less clear as customers start paring back on big-ticket items.

How to trade CURY’s results?

Curry’s share price broke out of a rising channel dating back to early 2024, running into resistance at 128 before easing lower, in a potential bull flag formation.

Buyers would need to rise above 125 to break out of the falling channel, and rise above 128 to head towards 140 and 146, the 2021 high.

Support can be seen at 118, the lower band of the falling channel, the June low, and the 50 SMA.

Constellation Brands Q1 earnings

Constellation Brands Shares jumped in May after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had over doubled its stake in the company. However, the optimism was not maintained with shares sliding to a 5-year low in June

The share price is still down 27% year to date, with tariffs weighing on the outlook. Profit forecasts shared in the full-year results in April also came in below forecasts.

The US announced a 25% tariff on all imported canned beer as well as empty aluminium cans. Given that Constellation Brands imports all of its beers into the US from Mexico, the company downgraded its outlook for 2026 and expects EPS of between $12.60 and $12.90 a share. The company also lowered its medium-term outlook for 2027 and 2028 to reflect the impact of the tariff.

Investors will be watching for further insights into restructuring, which sees it divesting the mainstream wine brands in its portfolio. The firm aims to reposition this side of the business to adopt a higher-growth strategy.

How to trade STZ Q1 earnings?

STZ trades below its falling trendline and its 200 SMA; however, 160 has so far held up as support. Sellers supported by the RSI below 50 will look to break below this level to extend the bearish move towards 150, a level last seen in 2020.

Any recovery would need to rise above 168, the 20 sma, and the April low to extend gains towards 185, the falling trendline resistance. A rose above 197 creates a higher high.