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USD/JPY outlook hinges on continued US interest rate recalibration

The Japanese yen continues to dance to the tune of US interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment, meaning events that may influence either of those areas should be the focus for USD/JPY traders this week.

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Today 03:00 AM
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NZD/USD: Respect the range until the Kiwi doesn’t

Some FX pairs like to gravitate towards big figures but not the NZD/USD. It’s clearly a fan of doing things in half big figure increment, proving plenty of opportunities to build trades around.

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February 19, 2024 10:23 PM
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USD/JPY, USD/CNH uptrends under threat as dollar rally splutters

The US dollar rally since the start of the year is showing signs of fatigue, unable to build upon gains last week despite widening yield differential between the United States and other major nations, including in Asia.

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February 19, 2024 08:57 PM

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AUD looks constructive against EUR, GBP following latest reversal

Attempts to ram EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD into higher trading ranges failed last week, suggesting the Aussie dollar may be starting to rediscover its mojo against some major European crosses.

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February 19, 2024 12:00 AM
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China market performance post Lunar New Year key for AUD/USD outlook

With the US dollar unable to find traction despite shorter-dated US yields rising to the highest level since mid-December, there are grounds to suggest AUD/USD may be able to break stubborn resistance located above .6530 in the days ahead.

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February 18, 2024 01:00 PM
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USD/JPY reclaims 150 as US yields push higher into producer price inflation report

Look no further than relative central bank interest rate expectations if you’re wondering what’s driving USD/JPY right now. The pair is moving in lockstep with US two-year Treasury note yields, running with a positive correlation of 0.96 on the daily over the past month.

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February 15, 2024 09:15 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets

Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.

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February 15, 2024 06:33 PM
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Gold, crude oil looking heavy despite reversal in bond yields, US dollar

Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.

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February 15, 2024 12:46 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?

Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.

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February 14, 2024 08:42 PM

EUR/USD: Dangling precariously as supports give way

There’s now a very real possibility the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the US Federal Reserve this year, putting EUR/USD under the pump and eyeing more downside.

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February 14, 2024 12:31 AM
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GBP/USD outlook boosted by UK wages data as focus turns to inflation

GBP supported as UK wages print 5.8% vs. 5.6% expected, but the GBP/USD outlook will now be influenced by upcoming inflation reports from both US, later today, and UK on Wednesday. US CPI is expected to print 2.9% vs. 3.4% previously.

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February 13, 2024 05:00 AM

NZD/USD: What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters taketh away

Having surged Friday on the back of a forecast from ANZ looking for an additional two hikes from the RBNZ, the NZD/USD has now given back those gains back following the latest RBNZ inflation expectation survey. What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters have taketh away.

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February 12, 2024 11:43 PM
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AUD/USD bulls battling against stubborn sellers into US CPI

AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.

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February 12, 2024 09:27 PM
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GBP/JPY: Eying bullish break to multi-year highs ahead of key economic reports

GBP/JPY is on the cusp of breaking to fresh multi-year highs ahead of key inflation and employment data from the United Kingdom and Japan, making this a pair to keep on the radar over the next 48 hours.

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February 12, 2024 06:31 PM

EUR/USD weekly reversal signals potential directional shift

US economic exceptionalism is back. US bond yields are rising as Fed rate cut bets are slashed. For an economic block with so much pessimism factored into the outlook, it’s a backdrop in which EUR/USD should be getting battered. But it’s not.

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February 11, 2024 11:20 PM
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EUR/USD outlook: Forex Friday – February 9, 2024

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday. In this week’s report, we will discuss the US dollar, upcoming data releases from the US next week, and why we think the EUR/USD is heading lower. In short, a sluggish Eurozone economy is holding back the euro, while hawkish Fed keeps US dollar underpinned ahead of CPI and retail sales and other data highlights next week.

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February 9, 2024 05:50 AM
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Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

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February 9, 2024 01:02 AM

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Dollar and EUR/USD analysis – February 7, 2024

Dollar weakness is lacking fundamental justification, with the Dollar Index looking to bounce back as it tests key support, while EUR/USD is back to probe broken support at 1.0780, which could turn into resistance.

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February 7, 2024 10:30 AM
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Range highs for US yields brings reversal risk for Gold, USD/JPY

A blowout payrolls report, another pushback from Jerome Powell against excessive rate cut bets and a surprise reacceleration in US service sector activity has seen the short end of the US Treasury curve come roaring back to life with yields surging higher.

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February 6, 2024 11:12 PM
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NZD/USD eyes downtrend test as thoughts shift to China’s stock market rescue

A late flurry of buying after New Zealand’s jobs report sent NZD/USD to the top of the G10 FX leaderboard on Tuesday, leaving in on track for another retest of the downtrend it’s been stuck in throughout the entirety of 2024.

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February 6, 2024 05:53 PM
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AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer

Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.

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February 5, 2024 08:04 PM
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EUR/AUD winning streak faces upside test ahead of RBA decision

EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.

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February 4, 2024 09:03 PM
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Gold Forecast: Bond yields and geopolitics on the radar as traders’ eye fresh highs

Gold’s outlook looks set to be dictated by geopolitical tensions along with the US rate outlook. Having broken its downtrend, the directional risks appear skewed to the upside near-term, putting a retest of the highs hit last year on the radar.

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February 2, 2024 09:00 PM