ASX 200 Outlook: Futures Signal Bearish Correction After 9000 Rejection

The ASX 200 futures briefly touched the 9000 milestone last week before reversing sharply, raising the prospect of a corrective wave lower. A shooting star candle on the daily chart marked a near-term top, and while the longer-term trend remains bullish, technical signals suggest the correction may not be finished. Bears are eyeing key Fibonacci levels and moving averages as potential downside targets, while the hourly chart shows intraday weakness around the weekly pivot.

ASX 200 Futures: Technical Signals Point to Extended Correction

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis – Daily Chart

Australia’s share market briefly touched my 9000 target last Monday before retreating. The shooting star reversal candle marked a classic near-term top and triggered a minor pullback. The daily chart trend remains strongly bullish overall, but I’m not convinced the correction has run its course. It’s not uncommon to see at least three minor corrective waves, even within a strong trend like the ASX 200.

Although we’ve seen a two-day bounce from the 10-day EMA, the bearish engulfing candle that formed overnight on ASX 200 futures is notable. It stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential lower high and the completion of wave ‘B’ in a simple ABC correction. If risk appetite weakens, a move down to the 8778 high-volume node (HVN) looks possible.

The near-term bias remains bearish beneath the overnight high.

A 38.2% Fibonacci level at 8833 could provide support for wave C.

A break beneath the 10-day EMA (8911) would put the 20-day EMA (8857) and 8833 low firmly in focus.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Chart

The hourly chart shows prices holding at the weekly pivot point, which could spark a minor bounce after the open. That said, the false break above 8949 and subsequent reversal near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement suggests the ASX 200 may have topped in the near term. Any rebounds are therefore likely to favour bears seeking opportunities to fade strength.

A weekly volume point of control (VPOC) sits at 8876, providing a potential downside target if ASX futures break below 8900 today.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEST / GMT+10)

09:30 JPY CPI, Jobs/Applications Ratio, Tokyo Core CPI, Tokyo CPI, CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy, Unemployment Rate (Jul/Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
09:50 JPY Industrial Production, Industrial Production Forecast 1m Ahead, Industrial Production Forecast 2m Ahead, Large Retailers' Sales, Large Scale Retail Sales, Retail Sales (Jul–Sep) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
11:30 AUD Housing Credit, Private Sector Credit (Jul) (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
13:00 NZD M3 Money Supply (Jul) (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)
15:00 JPY Construction Orders, Household Confidence, Housing Starts (Jul/Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
16:00 EUR German Import Price Index, German Retail Sales (Jul) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
17:55 EUR German Unemployment Change, German Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment, German Unemployment (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
18:00 EUR Regional CPIs – Baden Wuerttemberg, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, North Rhine Westphalia, Saxony (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
19:00 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
22:00 EUR German CPI, German HICP (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
22:30 USD Core PCE Price Index, Goods Trade Balance, PCE Price Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Real Personal Consumption, Retail Inventories Ex Auto, Wholesale Inventories (Jul) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY, Gold, Crude Oil)
22:30 GDP Annualised (Q2) (USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY)
23:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jul) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
23:45 USD Chicago PMI (Aug) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

Saturday, August 30, 2025

00:00 USD Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Consumer Sentiment (Aug) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
01:00 CAD Budget Balance (Jun) (USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY)
01:30 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.