Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Below Critical Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD marks outside weekly reversal– covers entire monthly range
Aussie June opening-range preserved just below critical resistance- NFPs on tap
Resistance 6511/50 (key), 6671, 6795-6810- Support 6357, 6291-6316 (key), 6163/79

The Australian Dollar is trading just below critical resistance for a second consecutive month with AUD/USD preserving the June opening-range into the close of the quarter. While the broader outlook remains constructive e, the immediate advance is vulnerable while below this key range- we’re on breakout watch into the open of July. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that the AUD/USD was, “is trading just below technical resistance for a fifth consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the June opening-range in the days ahead with the broader April rally vulnerable while below 6550.” The June range is preserved heading into the close of the month with a massive outside-weekly reversal taking Aussie back into key resistance on Friday. Note that momentum is approaching the 60-level for the first time this year and a break higher alongside a breach above 6550 could fuel a substantial rally here- watch the weekly close.

Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.

A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.

Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.

Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month & quarter on Monday with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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