Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Below Downtrend Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD consolidates within multi-week range below trend resistance
Aussie major breakout risk building while below multi-year slope – Core PCE on tap
Resistance 6550/77 (key), 6671, 6795-6810- Support 6445, 6409, 6354/6357 (key)

The Australian Dollar is in consolidation just below multi-year downtrend resistance, with AUD/USD trading within a well-defined range into the close of August. This pattern highlights a critical inflection point and the focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead with the bulls vulnerable below key resistance. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “A reversal off downtrend resistance is now approaching initial support- risk for trend resumption heading into August. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on the weekly close with respect to 6400…” Aussie held support that week with the entire August range holding within that single week’s range- looking for the breakout in the days ahead.

Initial support rests with the 52-week moving average (currently ~6445) and is backed closely by the February high at 6408 and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / February high-week close (HWC) at 6354/57- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / threaten resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 6290 and the 61.8% retracement / 2022 close-low at 6186-6200.

Key resistance / bearish invalidation is eyed at 6550/77- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline, the August 2024 LWC, and the 2025 HWC. A topside breach / close above this threshold is needed mark resumption of the April advance / invalidate the 2021 downtrend with subsequent resistance eyed at the 2016 low at 6671 and the 2024 HWC / 2024 open at 6795-6810- both areas of interest for possible exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is trading just below multi-year downtrend resistance with the immediate focus still on a breakout of the July 28^th weekly candle for guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 6577 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6357 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data this week with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.