Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Struggles at Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD rally halted at resistance of a fifth-consecutive week
Aussie May opening-range preserved post-RBA rate cut- breakout pending
Resistance 6429/45 (key), 6485, 6511/50- Support 6286/91 (key), 6144/79, 6007/45

The Australian Dollar is trading just below major resistance with AUD/USD holding a within a contractionary range for the past five weeks. The May opening-range is preserved on the heels today’s RBA rate cut and the focus remains on a breakout for guidance with the April rally still vulnerable while below the yearly moving average. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD had, “rallied into confluent resistance at the September downtrend- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6179 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6429 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.” Aussie has held below resistance for nearly five-weeks now with multiple breakout attempts failing at the 52-week moving average.

Weekly resistance now stands with the 2025 high-close / 50% retracement of the September decline at 6429/45 and is backed again by the yearly moving average, currently near ~6485. Critical resistance is eyed with the July close low / 61.8% retracement at 6511/50 and a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance towards the 2019 low at 6671.

Weekly support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / 2025 low-week close at 6286/91. Note that the median-line converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a weekly close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place. Subsequent support seen at 6143/79- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 2024/2022 swing lows.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar rally has been halted at resistance and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week range just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 52-week moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Review I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we have further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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