Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Three-Week Range Nears a Breakout

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD has stalled beneath the monthly high after rallying in four of the past five weeks.
Aussie has traded within a well-defined range below resistance for three consecutive weeks.
A breakout from the current range to provide important directional guidance into August.
Event risk on tap into the August open: US ISM services & manufacturing data, ADP employment, and NFPs
Resistance 7023, 7116/20 (key), 7208/14- Support 6927, 6877/80 (key), ~6825

AUD/USD heads into the July close locked in a well-defined three-week range just beneath major resistance, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. Buyers continue to pressure the upper boundary of the range while sellers have been unable to force a meaningful rejection, underscoring the constructive nature of the monthly recovery without yet confirming a breakout. The focus now shifts to whether the weekly and monthly closes can provide the confirmation needed to resolve this consolidation heading into August. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie registered an intraday high at 7027 two-weeks later with price stuck in a well-defined range just below resistance for a third week.

Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the late-June advance at 6927 with key support steady at 6877/80- a region define by the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a deeper correction in the weeks ahead with subsequent support seen a the 52-week moving average (currently ~6824) and the 2025 close high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6717/57.

A topside breach of this key pivot zone would expose key resistance at the February high-close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20. Note that former pitchfork support converges on this threshold in mid-August and strength surpassing this slope would suggest a more significant low is place and potential resumption of the broader uptrend. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally at 7208/14 and the 2019 swing high at 7295.

Bottom line: AUD/USD has rallied four-of-the-past five-weeks (last week marked a weekly doji) with the bulls testing resistance at the monthly high for a third-consecutive week. The immediate focus heading into August is on a breakout of this range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6927 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.

Keep in mind we get the release of key ISM data next week with the July Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance into the August open. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.