Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Coils Below Trend Resistance- Weekly Break to Decide Direction

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD rebounded from Fibonacci support with the weekly opening intact range just above.
Price is now trading just below trend resistance near the January high, leaving the long bias vulnerable unless a breakout develops.
Event risk limited this week- US retail sales & CPI on tap next week
Resistance 7049, 7077(key), 7136- Support 6930/43, 6828/37 (key), 6717

AUD/USD rebounded from support on Monday with the move helping establish the weekly opening range just above. Despite the recovery, price remains capped beneath trend resistance near the January high, leaving the immediate outlook dependent on how the market resolves this compression. A decisive break higher would suggest scope for continuation of the broader uptrend, while a failure to clear resistance would keep the long bias vulnerable and refocus attention on deeper support levels. The reaction into the weekly close is likely to provide the clearest signal for near-term direction. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had extended into, “uptrend resistance ahead of today’s Fed rate decision and the focus on possible inflection off this zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6896 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.” An attempted breakout the following day failed to secure a daily close above parallel resistance with Aussie plunging more than 2.6% off the highs into the February open.

Price rebounded off support yesterday at the 38.2% retracement of the January range and the 2024 swing high at 6930/43 with the weekly opening-range taking shape just above. Note that momentum remains in the overbought condition on both the weekly and daily chart and the focus remains on a potential breakout with the long-bias vulnerable while below this slope.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading just below initial resistance at the January high-day close (HDC) at 7049. Ultimately, a breach / daily close above the 2023 high-day close (HDC) at 7077 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend and to fuel the next major advance. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2023 close high at 7136 with the next major technical consideration eyed at 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance.

Initial support rests at 6930/43 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the November rally and the 61.8% retracement of the January range at 6828/37. Losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen a the 6717 and is backed by 6663/78- a region defined by the January low, the 2026 yearly open and the 61.8% retracement.

Bottom line: The AUD/USD is trading just below uptrend resistance, and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range here for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6828 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7077 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

Event risk for this pair is limited for the rest of the week with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index highlighting the docket on Friday. Next week we get the release of more significant data with the US retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI) on tap. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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