Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Above Key Support—Breakdown Risk Looms

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD rebounded after failing to close below a major support zone near the monthly low.
Price remains trapped below key resistance while downside pressure persists.
A break below support would threaten resumption of a broader correction within the yearly uptrend.
Resistance 7185, 7201/14 (key), 7258- Support 7108 (key), 7056, 7003

AUD/USD is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline from the monthly highs, with price action holding just above a critical support zone near the lows of the recent range. While the failure to secure a breakdown below support has eased immediate downside pressure, the broader near-term outlook remains vulnerable while the pair trades below major resistance. The focus now shifts to whether support can continue to hold or if the next leg of the correction begins to unfold. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had, “turned just ahead of resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just above confluent uptrend support. Look for the breakout to offer guidance with the long-bias vulnerable near-term. The immediate focus is on the daily close with respect to 7201/14. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 7108 IF price is heading higher on this stretch..” The range broke lower the following day with Aussie plunging more than 2.7% off the monthly high. Despite marking an intraday low at 7080, the bears were unable to secure a daily close below 7108 with Aussie now ranging just above the median line. The immediate focus is on a reaction off this slope with the medium-term outlook still tilted to the downside while below 7200.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the highs with the recent recovery faltering at the 25% parallel today. Initial resistance is eyed at last week’s high at 7185 and is backed closely by 7201/14- a region defined by the objective monthly open, the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2021 decline, and the 100% extension of the April 2025 advance. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone into the close of the week and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the yearly high-close at 7258 and 7295-7308.

A break / daily close below the 38.2% retracement of the March advance at 7108 would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at 7056 and the 61.8% retracement at 7003. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this level into the close of the month- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Aussie rebounded off trend support last week with this week’s opening range taking shape just above. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7214 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with close below 7108 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data tomorrow with the April Personal Consumption Expenditures on tap. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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