Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD has rallied more than 2% from the June low with a four-week rally now testing confluent resistance.
The recovery is challenging the upper boundary of the May downtrend, where multiple technical barriers converge.
A sustained break above resistance would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place and shift the focus toward higher upside objectives.
Failure to clear this barrier would keep the broader downtrend intact and leave the recent advance vulnerable to a renewed reversal.
Resistance 7003/23 (key), 7082, 7120- Support ~6940s, 6919, 6880/89 (key)

AUD/USD is attempting to register a fourth consecutive weekly advance after rebounding more than 2% from the June lows, bringing the pair back into a major technical inflection zone. The recovery is now testing the upper bounds of a multi-month downtrend, where multiple resistance levels converge. Whether buyers can force a decisive breakout—or sellers regain control at this barrier—should provide important clues on the broader directional outlook heading into next week's FOMC meeting. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was , “trading just above downtrend support with price marking an outside-day reversal candle into the close of the month. Risk for price inflection into the July open. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6822 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie rallied more than 2.3% off the June lows with the advance extending into pivotal resistance last week at the upper bounds of the May downtrend. Note that former slope support from the 2025 uptrend also converges on this zone and the immediate focus is on a reaction at this key barrier with the near-term long-bias vulnerable while below.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an embedded ascending channel (red) with the bulls challenging key resistance today at 7003/23- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May decline, the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally, the 100% extension of the late-June advance, and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. A topside breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 1.618% extension at 7082 and the 61.8% retracement at 7120.

Initial support rests at the highlight slope confluence near ~6940s and is backed closely by the July open at 6919. Key support rest with the 1.618% extension of the May decline, the monthly range low, and the 200-day moving average at 6880/89. A break / daily close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the multi-month downtrend with subsequent support seen at the 50% retracement of the 2025 advance and the March low at 6821/33- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Aussie is testing confluent downtrend resistance this week with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses would need to be limited to the weekly low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

The economic docket is rather light this week with the S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI on tap Friday. Next week traders will be focused on the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision as we get another update from Warch & Co. on the current state of the economy and the path for monetary policy. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.