Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rejected at 2023 High- Next Move at Stake

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD failed to sustain gains above the 2023 high after rallying back to fresh yearly highs earlier this month.
Price continues to trade within a defined March opening range, with resistance capping upside attempts. Breakout pending.
Key event risk on tap with the FOMC rate decision later today
Resistance 7158, 7208/14 (key), 7295- Support 6913/43 (key), 6805/11, 6717

AUD/USD has once again turned lower after testing a key resistance zone near the 2023 high, reinforcing the importance of this level within the current structure. The pair remains confined within its March opening range, with price action holding just beneath this ceiling despite recent attempts to break higher. With momentum still constructive but lacking confirmation, the market is approaching a decisive juncture. A sustained push above resistance would signal continuation toward higher targets, while failure to do so could leave the recent advance vulnerable to a broader pullback. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts heading into the Fed.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was trading into multi-month uptrend resistance, “with price holding a multi-week range just below lateral resistance. Looking for a reaction off this mark into the start of the month.” Aussie dropped more than 2.8% off the February high early in the month only to recover to fresh yearly highs days later with a rally of 3.5% faltering again at uptrend resistance last week. The March opening-range is set just below resistance, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the long-bias vulnerable while below the 2023 swing high at 7158.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading in the middle of a multi-week range with the recent recovery faltering today at the objective March open at 1.7116. Key support rests at 6913/43- a region defined by the 2024 high-day close (HDC), the 100% extension of the decline off them monthly high, and the March low. Note that the median-line converges on this zone into next week and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant pullback is underway within the broader uptrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 50% retracement & the 2024 yearly open at 6805/11 and the 2025 high-close at 6717.

A topside breach / daily close above the 2023 high exposes the next major technical consideration at 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the of the broader 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the April 2025 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- gains beyond this threshold could fuel another accelerate advance toward subsequent resistance objectives at the 2019 high at 71295 and the 61.8% extension of the November advance at 7393.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is trading within the monthly opening-range, just below uptrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, the bulls remain vulnerable while below 7158. Losses should be limited to 6913 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7213 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind the FOMC rate decision is due later this afternoon. While the Fed is widely expected to remain on hold, focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections on growth, inflation, and employment. Hotter-than-expected PPI data released earlier today suggests price pressures remain elevated, and with oil prices continuing to rise, the Fed may be inclined to stay on hold for longer—potentially through 2026. Reflecting this shift, Fed funds futures have continued to push out expectations for easing, with markets now pricing roughly a 60% probability of a cut in December. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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