Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Breakout

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD poised to mark fifth-daily advance- testing trend resistance at fresh yearly high
Australian Dollar risk for exhaustion / price inflection- Fed, PCE, NFP on tap into monthly cross
Resistance 6622 (key), 6671, 6723– Support 6581, 6486-6506 (key), 6458

The Australian Dollar surged more than 1.8% this week with AUD/USD now testing multi-month uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. The focus is on today’s close with the immediate advance vulnerable while below this key slope. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had responded to uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” Aussie plunged more than 2% off the monthly highs with price briefly registering an intraday low at 6455 before rebounding sharply higher. A five-day rally takes price into confluent resistance at the September low / upper parallel at 6622- watch the close with respect to this zone today.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD driving into uptrend resistance in early U.S. trade. A breakout of the July opening-range remains vulnerable while below this key slope and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2024 decline at 6723.

Initial support rests with the July open at 6581 and is backed by the May high-day close (HDC) / weekly open at 6486-6506. Losses would need to be limited to this region for the late-June advance to remain viable (near-term bullish invalidation). Subsequent support seen at the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458 with a break below 6350 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.

Bottom line: A breakout of the July opening-range takes AUD/USD into confluent uptrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 6486 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this slope needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is on tap next week with Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) slated into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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