Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Struggles at Resistance
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD trades to fresh yearly high- rally stalls at uptrend resistance
- Australian Dollar monthly & weekly opening-range breakouts pending
- Resistance 6550/53 (key), 6622, 6671– Support 6458, ~6411, 6332/62 (key)
The Australian Dollar surged more than 3.3% off the June lows with AUD/USD stalling at uptrend resistance into the monthly open. The pullback is carving the weekly & monthly opening-ranges just below resistance and we are looking for a breakout. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that the immediate focus was, “on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.” Aussie defended 6400 in late June before rallying with a breach above 6550 into the close of the month failing at the upper parallel. AUD/USD is now nearly 1.6% off the highs with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below Fibonacci resistance- looking for a potential breakout in the days ahead.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD reversing pitchfork resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline / weekly open at 6550/53- looking for a reaction off this mark.
A top-side breach of the weekly opening-range exposes the upper parallel again, currently near ~6600. Ultimately, a close above the September low at 6622 is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement near 6723.
Initial support rests with the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a break / close below would threaten a larger Aussie pullback. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 200-day moving average (currently ~6411) and 6332/62- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the April / August 2024 lows, and the May swing low. Losses beyond this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: The Aussie rally failed into the trendline resistance with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below. While the broader outlook is still constructive, the advance remains vulnerable here and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly range (6486-6553) for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
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Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
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