Bitcoin, Gold Outlook: Bullish Hold or Bearish Shift?

December Fed rate-hike expectations are fluctuating between 25 and 50 basis points, with markets assigning an 80%+ probability to a 25-basis-point increase, according to CME FedWatch. Alongside the halt in crude oil’s decline amid persistent tanker attacks, these expectations have supported the dollar’s rally to new 2026 highs. The following intermarket setups are now in focus:

• DXY is approaching nine-month resistance near 103.50, connecting higher highs since March. Daily momentum is also nearing overbought levels last seen at yearly extremes, raising near-term bearish reversal risks.
• EUR/USD has made new lows below 1.11 and is approaching a historical confluence zone between 1.10 and 1.0940. Bullish RSI divergence is emerging as the indicator rebounds from oversold levels last seen in 2015, bringing near-term reversal risks into focus.
• Gold tested new 2026 lows but quickly closed back above $3,870. Silver held above $49, pointing to a potential support alignment, with silver having recently led moves across the metals.
• Bitcoin is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its July–September advance. Daily momentum is at oversold levels last seen in June, bringing near-term bullish reversal risks into focus.
• Nvidia is rebounding from oversold conditions last seen in 2022, raising the possibility of a longer-term bullish reversal alongside the broader bullish hold across U.S. indices.
• Reports of a cybersecurity vulnerability affecting Microsoft Outlook could unsettle markets at today’s open, given the platform’s importance to businesses worldwide.

The IEA’s latest outlook points to global oil markets potentially returning to surplus for the first time since the Iran war began. While persistent tanker attacks have helped halt crude’s decline, the prospect of a supply surplus could limit oil’s upside and ease inflation pressures. With the dollar nearing overbought resistance, U.S. indices holding their bullish structure despite Nvidia’s sharp decline, precious metals maintaining a more fragile bullish bias and Bitcoin testing oversold conditions, another broader rebound may be possible unless key support levels are broken.

Bitcoin Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s July–September advance appears to have formed a five-wave impulse, potentially setting the stage for a longer-term bullish move. The recent correction may represent wave two within a broader impulse, according to Elliott Wave analysis.

The correction is testing the 61.8% retracement of the July–September advance, alongside daily oversold conditions last seen when price was near $58,000. In line with the intermarket setups, a potential reversal may be developing. A move back above $69,000, $72,000 and $75,000 would strengthen the bullish continuation case.

On the downside, concerns about cyberattacks—including the reported vulnerability affecting Microsoft Outlook—could weigh on sentiment at today’s market open. A breakdown below $67,000 would bring $64,000, $61,000 and $58,000 into focus as potential dip-buying zones.

Gold Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Despite briefly falling to new 2026 lows, gold managed to close back above support at $3,870. This points to a fragile bullish hold alongside silver, which did not make a new 2026 low yesterday.

The following scenarios may help determine whether the latest move was a false breakdown or the start of a further decline:

• Bullish scenario: If gold holds above $3,870 and then moves above $3,930, $3,970 and $4,030, the potential for a bullish reversal would return to focus. A key barrier near $4,160 could trigger another pullback or, if broken, support a move toward $4,300 and $4,400.

• Bearish scenario: A close below $3,870—which aligns with the 38.2% extension of the January–June–August wave—would bring $3,680 and $3,480 into focus. These levels align with the 50% and 61.8% extensions, respectively.

The intermarket picture remains important. A close below $49 in silver would expose $45 and could add to gold’s downside risk. By contrast, a rebound in silver above $52 and $53.80 would strengthen the bullish outlook. For the dollar, resistance at 103.50 remains a key level to watch in assessing whether a major correction develops or the longer-term bullish trend continues, weighing on currencies and metals.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves