Bitcoin Outlook: Is 60k the Bounce Zone or a Trap Door to 50k?

With bitcoin futures falling 53.5% in just 17 weeks, it is safe to say bears have been in charge. While this likely points to further losses in the months ahead, we may be approaching a near-term inflection point that could favour bulls.

View related analysis:

Source: LSEG

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis: Bitcoin vs US Dollar

Bitcoin Futures Weekly Chart: 60k Support in Focus

The weekly chart shows that bitcoin futures slid 53.5% from the October high to just shy of 60k in only 17 weeks. Naturally, this has pushed the RSI into oversold territory, although it is not always the best timing tool for a reversal. Still, there are clues that bitcoin could hold above 60k for the foreseeable future — even if an eventual break beneath it remains on the table as prices eye 50k or the high-volume node (HVN) at 47,145.

The recent swing low has an elongated lower wick, which stalled a cats whisker above 60k before recouping around half of the week’s losses, and closing just below the 200-day week SMA. The two subsequent inside bars formed in the upper half of the elongated bearish candle, each with lower wicks to show bulls fighting back. While prices are trying to tease bears with a break below 65k, I suspect more bulls await closer to 60k and are quietly accumulating such dips.

Bulls could consider dips towards 60k, targeting the 200-week SMA (70,802), 75k and 80k.
The bias remains for prices to continue lower while they hold beneath 80k — a pivotal level on the weekly chart.

Source: CME, TradingView

Bitcoin Futures: Bears Press 60k After Triangle Breakdown

Risk-off trade saw prices break lower from a symmetrical triangle, with bitcoin futures now trading below 65k. Prices respected the 10-day EMA as resistance, and there was volume behind the move, suggesting bears want another crack at 60k. While the daily chart appears compelling for bears, I would urge caution given the significance of 60k as support — making it a pivotal level for traders to monitor this week.

For now, the bias remains for a bounce above 60k and for bears to reconsider shorts around resistance levels. A break below 60k, however, paves the way for a move towards 50k — regardless of whether a bounce materialises first.

Source: CME, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.