Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD Rally Challenges a Major Trend Reversal

Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels

Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from a major multi-month support zone after registering an exhaustion low int the start of June.
The recovery is now challenging a critical confluence of resistance that could determine the broader trend.
Weekly momentum continues to improve, suggesting bearish pressure may be fading.
Building RSI divergence suggests downside momentum may be fading, raising the threat of an exhaustion low.
A breakout above current resistance would strengthen the case for a more significant low.
Risk sentiment and geopolitical developments remain key drivers into the weekly close.

Bitcoin has rallied nearly 16% from this month's low after reversing sharply from a major multi-year support zone highlighted in our previous outlook, bringing the focus back to whether the cryptocurrency has finally carved out a more durable bottom. The recovery is now approaching key resistance where multiple technical factors converge, making this one of the most important tests since the decline began. A decisive break above this barrier would strengthen the case that a larger trend reversal is underway, while another rejection would keep the broader corrective outlook intact heading into the weekly close.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Bitcoin setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

In last month’s Bitcoin Forecast we noted that BTC/USD was, “testing a critical support zone noted in our 2026 trade of the yearly at 57,885-58,725- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance and the August 2024 low-week close (LWC). Note that the lower parallel of the 2025 pitchfork and the 2023 trendline converges on this zone over the next week and the focus is on a possible price inflection off confluent support in the days ahead… Keep in mind we are on the lookout for a potential exhaustion low as this correction matures.” Bitcoin registered an intraday low at 57,735 the following week before reversing sharply higher with a four-week rally extending more than 15.9% off the yearly low. Weekly RSI divergence continues to suggest the bearish momentum is waning and the focus is on whether the bulls can stabilize above this key threshold.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the monthly low. The rally is approaching confluent resistance this week at the June 15 swing high, and the 38.2% retracement of the May decline at 67,253/322. Note that median lines of the near-term uptrend and the broader downtrend converge on this level into the close of the month and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the February low-day & low-week closes (LWC / LDC) at 70283/531 and the 2025 low / low-close at 74,434-76,159. The May downtrend converges on this level next month and gains surpassing this threshold would put the bulls back in control.

Initial support now rests with the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range at 61,244. This level converges on the lower parallel over the next few days and losses below this slope would threaten resumption of the May downtrend. Key support remains unchanged at 57,885-58,725 and losses below this mark would threaten another bout of accelerated losses for the cryptocurrency with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 100% extension of the decline off the record 2025 high at 52,204.

Bottom line: Bitcoin has rebounded form a key confluent support zone at the lower bounds of a multi-month downtrend. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 61,244 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / weekly close above 67,322 needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this month. Note that risk sentiment has been under pressure amid the expanding war in Iran and the focus will be on whether the bulls can step in to defend this support zone. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.