Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bulls Eye 80k Though Crypto Momentum Diverges

Bitcoin has capitalised on the past month’s risk-on rally, with BTC/USD pushing towards the key 80k level. Yet while bulls remain in control on the surface, the broader crypto market is telling a more cautious story.

Altcoins have failed to confirm the move, and futures positioning points to stretched bullish sentiment—raising the risk that this rally is more corrective than impulsive.

With Bitcoin now approaching a major psychological and technical level, traders should brace for volatility and the possibility that this move is nearing exhaustion.

View related analysis:

Bitcoin Nears 80k as Diverging Crypto Momentum Raises Reversal Risk

Bitcoin Leads While Altcoins Lag

Bitcoin has made the most of the past four weeks’ risk-on rally, with BTC/USD spot prices nearing 80k for the first time since early February. Ethereum is keeping pace to a degree, although its rally has been far messier.

And that’s where the party ends.

Looking across XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA and DOGE, price action shows a lacklustre attempt to break out of sideways ranges. Dow Theory followers will note that a true bullish move should be confirmed across major markets, yet what we’re seeing is large-cap crypto leaving alt coins behind.

Even then, the rallies in BTC/USD and ETH/USD look tame compared to the ‘good old days’—and to my eye, appear corrective. With Bitcoin now approaching resistance, there’s a strong case that the best of this move may already be behind us.

Source: Binance, Forex.com, TradingView

Bitcoin Futures (BTC) Positioning – COT report:

The weekly charts shows bitcoin futures remains in a clear downtrend, though momentum has turned higher since the February low. It is possible BTC is in the wave ‘C’ of a classic ABC correction. Also note that resistance looms around 80k and the November low.

Record BTC Positioning Signals Potential Sentiment Peak

More importantly, we may have seen a sentiment extreme two weeks ago, as large speculators pushed net-long exposure in BTC/USD futures to a record high. Notably, positioning dipped slightly last week from that peak, suggesting bullish exposure may have risen faster than underlying futures prices.

With sentiment stretched, prices hovering near resistance, and altcoins still stuck around their cycle lows, there is a growing risk that this move is nearing exhaustion. If so, it raises the possibility that wave C is close to completion.

Source: CME, TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis

Putting the prospects of a sentiment extreme and lagging altcoins to one side, the daily chart still shows an uptrend for Bitcoin. With 80k now within reach, it would be surprising not to see price at least test that level, with the potential for choppy, two-way volatility around it.

A small bearish divergence has formed on RSI (2) and RSI (14), although the latter has yet to reach overbought territory. That leaves the door open for a push above 80k before any meaningful pullback takes hold.

Unless we see clear signs of a swing high around 80k, bulls could target the weekly VPOC at 83,850 or the monthly VPOC at 89,434.

However, if this rally is indeed a false flag and marks the latter stages of a corrective wave C, the more compelling move may ultimately be to the downside.

Source: Coinbase, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.