Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surges into Pivotal Resistance

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CAD rally extends 3.3% off yearly low- rips into critical resistance near four-month high
USD/CAD risk for possible inflection / exhaustion- October opening range in focus amid U.S. government shutdown
Resistance 1.3978/1.4019(key), 1.4184, 1.4292-1.4315– Support 1.3881, 1.3819 (key), 1.3733

The Canadian Dollar is testing a critical pivot zone with USD/CAD surging into major technical resistance today. The June rally hangs in the balance, with a breach above this zone needed to fuel the next leg higher. Failure to clear this barrier would leave the pair vulnerable to a near-term reversal, making this a make-or-break moment for the broader trend. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was carving the September opening-range just below resistance and that from a trading standpoint, “losses should be limited to the yearly low-week close IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3835 needed to validate a breakout of the yearly downtrend.” USD/CAD tested / defended the 2025 low-week close at 1.3733 two-weeks later before reversing sharply higher with the advance now extending nearly 1.9% off the September low.

The advance is testing major resistance this week at 1.3978-1.4019- a region defined by the 2022 swing high, 200-day moving average, the 52-week moving average, the May high, and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this key pivot zone. A topside breach / close above this region is needed to invalidate the May breakdown / mark resumption of the June advance. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the February close low at 1.4184 and the 2025 high-week close (HWC) / 61.8% retracement at 1.4292-1.4315 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2022 HWC at 1.3881 and is backed by medium-term bullish invalidation at the April low close / July trendline at 1.3819- a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 1.3733 and the yearly close low at 1.3583.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing a critical resistance zone into the start of the month, and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the long-bias vulnerable while below. Look for a breakout of the October opening-range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3819 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a weekly close above 1.4019 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind that the September Non-Farm Payroll figures will be delayed amid the ongoing government shutdown and traders will be closely monitoring the flow of headlines out of Washington D.C. to offer a catalyst in the days ahead. Stay nimble into the monthly opening-range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

US/ Canada Economic Data Release

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.