Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Within July Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CAD marks outside-day reversal off resistance- plunges more than 1.1% into July uptrend support
USD/CAD weekly opening-range breakout imminent- U.S PPI, retail sales on tap
Resistance 1.3810/19, 1.3856, 1.3881/99 (key)- Support 1.3729/50 (key), 1.3670, 1.3571/90

USD/CAD is trading just above uptrend support after a plunging into the August open. Price action remains constructive for now, with the pair holding within a well-defined range just above support, and a breakout from this range could offer guidance on the next directional move. Bulls will need to defend the July uptrend to keep the broader recovery bias intact. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD short-term technical charts.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook, we noted that, “The USD/CAD breakout is being tested into the August open. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3670 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.39 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” The pullback held initial support into the monthly open with the weekly opening-range taking shape just above- looking for a breakout in the days ahead with the outlook constructive while above this key pivot zone.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Canadian Dollar price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines the ascending pitchfork we have been tracking off the July low. Note that the lower parallel now converges on support at 1.3729/50- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2021 advance, the 38.2% retracement of the June rally, and the May opening-range low (ORL). A break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger breakdown is underway with subsequent support seen at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3670 and the yearly low-day close (LDC) / May, June & July lows at 1.3571/90- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial resistance is eyed at 1.3810/19 and is backed by the monthly open at 1.3855. Key resistance remains with the 2022 high-close / 2023 high at 1.3881/99- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance with subsequent objectives eyed at the 2022 high at 1.3978 and the May high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.4019.

Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance is trading just above uptrend support into the monthly open with the weekly opening-range preserved- look for a potential breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3729 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.39 still needed to mark resumption of the July uptrend.

Keep in mind we have U.S. PPI and retail sales on tap into the close of the week with Canadian CPI and the Jackson Hold Economic Symposium slated for next week. Watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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