Key Events
• International Energy Week leaned more bearish on supply expectations, reinforcing downside pressure toward the 62 zone.
• US crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels, marking the highest levels since February 2025 and confirming short-term surplus conditions.
• While macro sentiment fluctuates, structural technical levels continue to define directional bias.
International Energy Week emphasized growing output expectations rather than demand deterioration. The shift in tone reinforced supply-side pressure at a time when price remains technically vulnerable.
Bearish Structure Remains Dominant Since 2022
The latest inventory data confirmed a surplus of 8.5 million barrels, the first material build of this scale since February 2025. This aligns with the broader structure: crude oil remains within a primary bearish trend established from the 2022 highs.
While counter-trend rebounds have emerged throughout 2023–2025, the dominant descending channel structure has not been invalidated. Every rally continues to face structural resistance.
Crude Oil Inventories 
Source: Forex factory
Price action is now compressing near the 62 support zone, a pivotal level that separates tactical recovery from structural continuation lower.
A sustained hold above 62 maintains a neutral-to-bullish tactical bias. However, confirmation of upside momentum requires a decisive reclaim of 66 — the first structural pivot needed to challenge the broader downtrend.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Crude Oil Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
On the daily chart, price is testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has been developing since the 2025 lows. This counter-trend structure was supported by geopolitical hedging flows and weather-related demand strength earlier in the year. However, with tensions easing and inventories rising, WTI is now pressuring both the channel support and the 62 horizontal level.
Bearish Scenario
- A sustained break below 62 exposes 60 immediately.
- A confirmed close below 60 opens the path toward 57, the mid-zone of the ascending channel.
- Failure to stabilize there would shift focus toward 55, and in an accelerated downside extension, 49 — the lower boundary of the broader descending channel originating from the 2023 highs.
Bullish Scenario
- If 62 holds and price reclaims 66, upside momentum may build toward 70.50 — the upper boundary of the recent range.
- A sustained breakout above 70.50 would begin challenging the multi-year descending channel resistance, opening the door toward 74.50 and potentially 80, provided momentum indicators maintain constructive structure.
The 66–70.50 zone remains the technical gateway between counter-trend rebound and structural reversal attempt.
Crude Oil Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a weekly perspective, crude oil continues to trade within a descending channel in place since 2023. This remains the defining primary trend, regardless of short-term headline volatility.
The 60–62 zone represents the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range within this broader structure.
Below 60 and 59: The descending channel reasserts dominance, exposing 57, 55, and ultimately 49.
Until a decisive breakout occurs on the weekly timeframe, crude oil remains technically constrained within a multi-year bearish framework.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
