As February comes to an end, the crypto market continues to show persistent indecision and a lack of meaningful appetite in the short term. For now, the main assets in the sector remain in a consistent neutral scenario, led by Bitcoin as the market’s reference currency.
Events such as potential trade tensions have begun to reduce interest in risk assets in the short term, also affecting market confidence in recent sessions. As long as uncertainty remains present in the macroeconomic environment, this phase of neutrality is likely to continue dominating the movements of major cryptocurrencies in the coming sessions.
Trade tensions reduce risk appetite
The week began with relevant developments for market confidence. Comments emerged from President Donald Trump regarding the possible implementation of 15% global tariffs on all imports entering the United States, in response to a Supreme Court ruling related to tariffs proposed during 2025.
Later, during the State of the Union address, the president reaffirmed that the measure remained under consideration, prompting regions such as the European Union to request greater clarity regarding a potential escalation of trade tensions. This scenario has fueled concerns about a more prolonged trade conflict in the short term and has limited the recovery of risk appetite. In this context, the cryptocurrency market, not traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, has struggled to regain momentum amid uncertainty.
Part of this slowdown is reflected in the number of confirmed transactions on the Bitcoin network. As the price remains around the $65,000 area, the number of confirmed transactions declined to approximately 425,000 on February 25, compared to 566,000 in previous sessions. This decrease signals reduced network activity, which may be linked to caution stemming from trade tensions and the absence of consistent short-term demand.
Source: Blockchain
In this sense, the decline in Bitcoin market activity, which often serves as a benchmark for the broader sector, reinforces the prevailing cautious sentiment. As long as tariff-related uncertainty persists, neutrality is likely to continue shaping crypto market price action in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin compared to other markets
Bitcoin’s correlation with other risk markets has become more evident recently. It currently maintains a correlation coefficient above 0.5 with the S&P 500 index, reflecting a meaningful positive relationship. This indicates that both equity markets and Bitcoin have displayed similar weakness in recent sessions. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients may change over time.
Source: Data – TVC, StoneX, Tradingview
This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin is behaving more in line with traditional risk markets. However, rather than benefiting the crypto sector, this alignment confirms that reduced overall risk appetite is weighing on both equities and cryptocurrencies. In this environment, markets appear to be favoring more stable assets, sidelining demand for more volatile instruments such as Bitcoin.
Overall, the combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, correlation with risk assets, and low appetite creates a challenging environment for cryptocurrencies. As long as these factors persist, neutrality is likely to remain dominant in the short term and could even give way to further episodes of weakness.
Confidence fails to recover
The Fear and Greed Index continues to hover around 16 points. Although it has shown slight improvement compared to previous weeks, it remains in “extreme fear” territory. These levels have not been seen in several months and reflect that market confidence remains at lows, without clear signs of sustained recovery.
Source: Coinmarketcap
In this context, weak confidence makes it difficult to consolidate sustained demand in the cryptocurrency market. Unless sentiment indicators show clear improvement, indecision and weakness are likely to continue dominating crypto price movements in the coming sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him on: @julianpineda25
