Crypto Technical Analysis: Weakness Builds Again Across BTC and Major Cryptos

As markets enter the second half of the year, consistent short-term weakness is becoming evident again across the cryptocurrency market. The main cryptocurrencies have not been able to maintain the demand strength seen a few weeks ago, and for now, new lows have started to gain relevance in some assets.

The lack of clear direction continues to prevent a stronger recovery across the main cryptocurrencies, suggesting that confidence has not fully recovered. In this context, neutrality and weakness continue to dominate the market in the short term. This indecision could remain relevant over the coming trading sessions, especially if new significant highs fail to appear in the market.

Performance of the main cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• During the week, mixed performance among the main cryptocurrencies became evident again. Only a few have managed to stand out with price recoveries, while the rest continue to show weakness. Now, Solana stands out, as despite being one of the most affected cryptocurrencies in previous weeks, it is up 3.67% by the end of the week and shows greater relative stability in the short term. However, Dogecoin shows a different picture, with a decline of -5.03%, suggesting that the market is not moving in a clearly aligned way and reinforcing the broader sense of indecision.
   

• Over the last 10 weeks on average, significant weaknesses continue to stand out among the main cryptocurrencies. All of them continue to show relevant declines, which suggests that medium-term selling pressure has not fully disappeared and could remain important. In this scenario, Cardano remains the most affected cryptocurrency, with a loss of -37.18%, while Bitcoin has tried to show greater relative stability, with a decline of -13.97%. Even so, medium-term weakness remains evident and shows that the recent recovery has not yet been enough to improve the broader dynamic accumulated over the last few months.
   

• Year to date, the market still faces an important challenge, as none of the main cryptocurrencies have managed to move above their 2026 opening prices. Cardano remains the weakest asset over this period, with a decline of -51.53%, partly because it was also one of the most affected cryptocurrencies in the short-term last week. This reflects an especially difficult confidence backdrop for the asset. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has tried to maintain greater relative stability, with a decline of -27.96%. Overall, the crypto market continues to accumulate a relevant negative performance in 2026.
   

• Bitcoin, as the market benchmark, reflects the indecision that remains present in short-term price action. During the week, it lost just over 200 dollars in value, showing increasingly visible neutrality. The cryptocurrency continues to trade near the 60k area, which means it still does not show relevant buying strength and remains in an indecisive phase.
   

• Overall, most of the market is showing a significant indecision bias, which has led to increasingly visible neutrality in price action. If new relevant highs do not appear, this environment could continue to highlight a marked phase of indecision and even open the door to the formation of short-term sideways ranges over the coming sessions.

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation perspective, the strong positive relationship between the main cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin continues to stand out. Now, all correlation coefficients remain close to 0.9, reflecting an important positive relationship between BTC and the rest of the crypto market over the last 20 trading sessions. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients can change over time.

This behavior shows that the crypto market, in general, has followed Bitcoin’s dynamic. BTC’s recent weakness and lack of a clear recovery direction have also been reflected across a large part of the market. Now, the market remains aligned, but not in a strong confidence environment. Instead, it is moving under a dynamic of limited direction, as no cryptocurrency appears to show enough buying strength to move away from the neutral scenario that has defined Bitcoin over the last few sessions.

So, although some cryptocurrencies are trying to maintain some stability, the lack of appeal in the crypto market remains evident. If BTC fails to regain strength over the coming sessions as the market benchmark, the current neutrality could continue to affect the market more broadly and reinforce the sense of indecision over the next trading sessions.

 

Bitcoin fails to mark new highs

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The recovery seen in Bitcoin over previous weeks has not been enough to mark the beginning of consistent buying pressure in the short term. So far, the technical pattern that continues to dominate the market is the broad bearish trendline that has been in place for several months.

If the price continues to show pressure below the moving averages, this bearish trendline could remain the dominant structure to watch over the coming weeks.

Indicators:

• Now, the RSI line is once again showing consistent movements below the neutral 50 level, while the MACD histogram remains near the 0 line. This reflects that selling momentum has regained relevance in the short term, although there is still some balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. Overall, BTC continues to face a lack of clear direction, which could keep highlighting a relevant phase of indecision.

Key levels:

• 71,600 USD – Important resistance: Recent high area that stands as the most relevant upside barrier to watch and coincides with the 50-period moving average. Price action moving toward this level could reactivate a buying bias that has lost strength and begin to put the bearish trend line at risk over the coming weeks.
   
• 65,500 USD – Near-term barrier: Recent neutral level that previously worked as a low area on the chart. This point could act as a tentative barrier if bullish corrections appear over the coming sessions.
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• 60,700 USD – Definitive support: Relevant low area not seen since October 2024 and close to important psychological levels. Consistent moves below this point could continue to reinforce a dominant selling bias and extend the current bearish trendline as the main price structure over the following weeks.

 

Cardano returns to yearly lows

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Cardano has not only been one of the most affected cryptocurrencies of the week, but its consistent price weakness continues to give relevance to a broad bearish trendline. In addition, the price has moved back near the 2026 lows, reinforcing a vulnerable technical backdrop.

If selling pressure remains consistent, the bearish structure could start to gain greater relevance in Cardano’s price action over the coming trading sessions.

Indicators:

• Now, the RSI line remains consistently below the neutral 50 area, while MACD is preparing for the histogram to cross the 0 line. This suggests that selling pressure has become increasingly relevant in short-term movements. However, it is important to note that RSI is already approaching the oversold area marked by the 30 level, which could also open the door to possible bullish corrections after the recent excess in selling pressure.

Key levels:

• 22.592 – Important resistance: Relevant high located above the major bearish trendline and aligned with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price moves above this level could put the bearish structure at risk and open the door to a dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
   
• 19.148 – Near-term barrier: Relevant retracement level that previously worked as the lower part of an important sideways range. This point could act as a tentative barrier if short-term bullish corrections start to form.
   
• 15.000 – Main support: Level that corresponds to the relevant 2026 low area and stands as the most important downside barrier to watch. Price moves below this level could once again show dominant selling pressure and generate an important extension of the major bearish trendline over the following weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25