FX – Mix bag no signs of a clear USD recovery yet
- EUR/USD – Another test/challenge on the 1.1850/1827 key short-term support (printed a low of 1.1817 yesterday, 29 Nov) before it pushed back above 1.1850/1827. Interestingly, the rebound also occurred at the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 07 Nov 2017 low. No change, maintain bullish bias for another round of potential upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.2000 in the first step follow by the 1.2070/2090 (swing high area of 08 Sep 2017 + upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 07 Nov 2017 low).
- GBP/USD – Rise in progress. Short-term resistance/target met at 1.3450 as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 1.3370 (former minor swing high area of 27/29 Nov 2017) for further potential push up towards 1.3600 (medium-term swing high area of 15/22 Sep 2017.
- AUD/USD – Broke below the 0.7585 short-term support and printed a low of 0.7552 in yesterday (29 Nov) U.S. session. The pair is still holding above the 0.7530 key medium-term support with mix elements. Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7530 & 0.7595 (former minor swing low areas of 27/28 Nov 2017 + minor descending trendline from 27 Nov 2017 high). Only an hourly close above 0.7595 is likely to reinstate the bullish tone for another round of potential upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7660/7670.
- NZD/USD – Recall that we have turned neutral since the start of this week due to the risk of a minor corrective decline (see previous reports). In today’s Asian session (30 Nov), the pair has broken below the 0.6890 lower neutrality zone and tumbled straight towards the corrective decline potential target of 0.6840 (former minor swing high area of 22 Nov 2017 + Fibonacci cluster) reinforced by a weak NZ business confidence sentiment data for Dec (-39.3 versus the previous month of -10.1). Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis coupled with two recent hourly “Doji” candlestick patterns seen at the 0.6840 level, the pair may start to see a potential bullish reversal at this juncture. Flip back to bullish bias above 0.6820 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 17 Nov 2017 low + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 17 Nov low to 28 Nov 2017 high) for a further potential push up to retest 0.6890 follow by 0.6930 intermediate resistance in the first step.
- USD/JPY – Pushed up above the 111.50/66 short-term resistance but still below key medium-term resistance of 112.70 (swing high areas of 17/21 Nov 2017 + close to the upper boundary of the minor descending channel from 06 Nov 2017 high) Mix elements now, prefer turn neutral first between 112.70 & 111.40 (minor swing low area of 29 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 27 Nov 2017). An hourly close below 111.40 shall reinstate the bearish tone for a potential push down towards the next intermediate support at 110.60/50 (former medium-term range resistance of 16/31 Aug 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
Commodities – WTI sees risk of further minor corrective decline as OPEC meeting looms
- WTI Crude (Jan 2018) –OPEC decision day today on extension of the current output cuts. Yesterday (29 Nov) U.S. session, it staged a break down below 57.40 lower neutrality zone (see previous report) which increases the risk of a minor corrective decline phase. Turn bearish below 58.35 key short-term resistance (minor swing high areas of 28/29 Nov 2017) for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 55.75 follow by 55.00 (13 Nov 2017 low + former medium-term swing high areas of Jan/Feb 2017.
- Gold – Broke below 1287 short-term support which invalidated the minor push up scenario towards 1306/1310. Prefer to turn neutral now between 1265 (range support since 06 Oct 2017) & 1300.
Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 at risk of a minor corrective decline
- US SP 500 – Rallied and hit the 2634 key medium-term resistance/target (refer to weekly technical outlook) as expected in first half of yesterday (29 Nov) U.S. session before it retreated. The reaction from the 2634 resistance level is triggered by a sell-off in the leading sector, Technology which shed 2.2% (the worst intraday decline since 09 Jun 2017). This latest observation suggests that the Index is likely to see the start of short to medium-term corrective decline because Technology (the sector leader) has started to show short-term bullish exhaustion signs which can create a negative feedback loop to other sectors if there is a delay in the Senate vote on the tax reform plan. Turn bearish below 2634 resistance for a potential decline to test the 2609/2605 intermediate support in the first step (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 20 Nov 2017 low to yesterday high + former minor swing high of 27 Nov 2017 + lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 15 Nov 2017 low).
- Japan 225 –Pushed up and retreated from the 22800 short-term range resistance in place since 17 Nov 2017. No change, maintain bearish bias with 22320 as downside trigger level. An hourly close below 22320 shall increase the bearish conviction to trigger another round of potential dowleg to retest the 21830 minor swing low area of 15 Nov 2017.
- Hong Kong 50 –Declined as expected and hit the 29300 key medium-term support (refer to weekly technical outlook) coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region. Short-term downside momentum of price action has started to ease, turn bullish above 29300/29090 support for a potential push up to retest the intermediate resistance at 29770 (former minor swing low area of 23 Nov 2017 + minor descending trendline from 22 Nov 2017 high).
- Australia 200 – Pushed down as expected from the 6013/6033 (excess) key medium-term resistance towards the 5950 minor range support. Prefer to turn neutral now between 5950 & 6033. Only an hourly close below 5950 shall validate a further potential corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 5900.
- Germany 30 – Pushed up above 13120/164 short-term support to stage another test on the 13220 key medium-term resistance (see weekly technical outlook) as it printed a high of 13196 in yesterday (29 Nov) European session before it retreated back below 13120. No change, maintain bearish bias and 12847 needs to be broken down to trigger the start of another round of potential minor corrective downleg to target the next intermediate support at 12720/700.
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