US futures
Dow futures 0.15%, S&P futures 0.05% & Nasdaq futures -0.14%
In Europe
FTSE 0.40% & DAX0.35%
- Stocks muted with consumption in focus
- Fed Vice President Bowman speaks later
- The Jackson Hole Symposium this week is the main event
- Oil falls on Ukraine-Russia peace hope
Stocks unmoved with consumer health in focus
Stocks are pointing to a muted open as Home Depot kicks off big box retailers' earnings and as the market looks cautiously ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
Home Depot, the home improvement retailer, is the first of several big box retailers to report this week, providing further clues about the health of the US consumer. Given that consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the total U.S. economy, the market will be keen to see the impact of US tariffs on forecasts and individuals' spending.
Last week's data show that consumer confidence deteriorated in July as a result of weakness in the jobs market and tariff uncertainty.
In addition to earnings, Federal Reserve vice chair Michelle Bowman is due to speak later in the day. Bowman voted to cut rates by 25 basis points in the latest FOMC meeting and voiced support for at least three rate cuts this year amid concerns over the labour market.
The market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in September and another likely in December.
The key focus this week will be the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole from August 22nd to 23rd. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday, and his comments will be watched closely for clues over the central bank's outlook for the economy and monetary policy.
Separately, S&P Global affirmed its AA+ credit rating on the US19, stating that revenue from trade tariffs should offset the fiscal hit from Trump’s tax cuts and spending bill.
Corporate news
Palo Alto Networks trades 5% higher in premarket after posting strong quarterly results after the close on Monday, whilst also offering a positive fiscal 2026 outlook amid strong demand for its AI-powered cybersecurity solutions.
Home Depot is rising as the home improvement retailer missed earnings and revenue forecast for the first time since May 2014, but maintained its full-year outlook. It expects total full-year sales to grow 2.8%,
Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.
After briefly rising to a high of 45,280 last week, the Dow Jones has eased back and is consolidating just below 45k. The long upper wick on Friday’s candle and slowing momentum could be a reason to be cautious. Buyers would need to close above 45k and 45,280 to create fresh record highs. Should sellers successfully defend 45k, a move lower to 44,500 could be on the cards, and a break below 44k would create a lower low, changing the structure of the chart.
FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises
The USD is falling, giving back yesterday’s gains in signs of caution ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium this week. If the Fed responds to a weak labour market with interest rate cuts, the US dollar could come under pressure. The Fed could give more clues at this week’s conference.
The EUR/USD is rising amid optimism over a potential Ukraine peace deal, although moves are muted amid caution ahead of the Jackson Hole Summit. Attention is also turning to Eurozone PMI data on Thursday after Q2 GDP data was weak.
The GBP/USD is modestly higher on USD weakness and improved market sentiment. Attention is turning to UK CPI data tomorrow, which is expected to show that inflation remains sticky at 3.7%, well above the BoE’s 2% target. The market is not pricing in another rate cut until February.
Oil falls on Ukraine-Russia peace optimism.
Oil prices are under pressure on Tuesday as traders assess the possibility of trade talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US ending the war in Ukraine, which could bring Russian oil back to the market.
Following yesterday's meeting between Trump, Zelenskiy, and several European leaders, developments fuel renewed hopes for an end to the war. The prospect of increased supply combined with a reduced risk premium is pulling oil prices lower.
