Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises post-Fed on trade deal hopes

US futures

Dow futures 0.4% at 41253

S&P futures 0.47% at 5656

Nasdaq futures 0.66% at 19996

In Europe

FTSE -0.30% at 8530

DAX 0.67% at 23271

Stocks rise on US-UK trade deal hopes
Chip stocks rise on hopes of less stringent AI chip export restrictions
The Fed left rates unchanged and warned of higher inflation
Oil rises on trade deal optimism

Stocks rise on UK-US trade deal hopes

U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday on news that the US was on the brink of signing a trade deal with the UK. Meanwhile, chip stocks added to gains on optimism of fewer export curbs on AI semiconductors.

Trump teased a trade deal announcement on his Truth social platform at 10:00 AM ET. This will mark the first trade deal since he paused country-specific tariffs imposed on world economies last month.

Meanwhile, the US and China will meet in Switzerland for icebreaker trade talks after weeks of tit for tat tariffs have sparked concerns over global economic growth.

Chip stocks are outperforming on expectations that Trump will modify Biden-era rules curbing the export of sophisticated AI chips. Such a change could boost exports of the likes of Nvidia.

These updates help lift the market mood, boosting equities and the US dollar amid some unwinding of the sell America trade.

Investors also continued to weigh the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision yesterday. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% but warned against a stagflationary outlook, in which inflation and unemployment could rise.

Corporate news

Warner Bros. is falling 2% after the media giant missed Q1 revenue estimates. The company's lack of big box office hits and weakness in the traditional TV business contributed to the decline.

Holdings is falling over 7% after the chip technology provider issued a weak revenue forecast, warning about a hit from tariff economic uncertainty.

Peloton is falling 3% after the fitness company posted a Q3 loss. Even as it raised its 2025 revenue forecast, the company expected an increase in instructional video subscriptions.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow Jones is extending its recovery from the 36,600 2025 low testing resistance around the 41,500 level. Buyers supported by the RSI above 50 will look to rise above here to expose the 200 SMA at 42,325, Above here buyers could gain momentum. Support is seen at 40,700 and 40k..

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises

The USD is inching higher, adding to yesterday's gains after the Federal Reserve left rates on hold and highlighted concerns over stagflation. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding trade deals is also lifting the US dollar higher.

The EUR/USD is unchanged, never on the 113 level, amid mixed cues from the region. While Frederick Merz's winning position as Chancellor in Germany is helping to support prices, recent data has been mixed. Eurozone retail sales fell, and German industrial production was stronger than expected, though this is due to a pull ahead in front of Trump's tariffs.

GBP/USD is rising after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in line with expectations. However, the vote was slightly more hawkish, with two members voting to leave rates on hold overshadowed two policy makers voting to cut rates by a larger 50 basis points. The BoE also increased its growth forecast for this year to 1%. Trump has also teased a full and comprehensive trade deal with the UK.

Oil rises on trade talk optimism

Oil prices are rising, recovering from yesterday's losses amid rising optimism surrounding trade talks between the US and China this weekend.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China's top economic official in Switzerland for icebreaker negotiations, a sign of the escalation of the trade war disrupting the global economy.

All the trade deals also being announced, such as with the UK, could also be supporting the oil demand outlook.

However, the upside is being limited by OPEC+ increasing oil output for a second straight month.

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.