EUR/USD, DXY, Silver Price Outlook: Bullish Rebounds on Hold?

Bullish rebounds across currency markets, including EUR/USD, precious metals and risk assets, may be temporarily on hold following the stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI data and continued attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This backdrop is supporting the U.S. Dollar Index and crude oil charts, potentially delaying those rebounds.

December Rate-Hike Expectations

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

The probability of a December Fed rate hike has risen to nearly 100%, with markets pricing in an approximately 86% chance of a 25-basis-point increase and a 13% chance of a 50-basis-point increase. These expectations, alongside persistent geopolitical tensions, have supported the bullish setup in the DXY following the sharp volatility around the U.S. midterm election results and the Democratic victory.

DXY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Despite briefly breaking below its 10-month rising support to test the 101 level, the DXY has climbed back above the trendline and the 102 mark, reinforcing its near-term bullish bias.

From an Elliott Wave and momentum perspective, the DXY may be tracing its fifth and final wave of 2026. A close above 102.60 would bring the eight-month rising resistance near 103–103.50 into focus. This could be a final test before either a pullback or a longer-term bullish breakout.

On the downside, a sustained break below 101 would bring 100.60 and the psychological 100 level into focus. These levels align with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the September–November advance. A confirmed break lower could signal a longer-term bearish shift in the DXY, supporting rebounds across major currencies and precious metals.

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

The DXY’s strength is limiting EUR/USD’s rebound potential, keeping the pair below a multi-month descending trendline drawn from August 2025. This trendline has acted as resistance since October, near 1.1260.

A close above 1.1260 would bring bullish reversal risks into focus. This scenario aligns with weekly RSI testing oversold conditions last seen in 2025 and daily RSI rebounding from oversold conditions last seen in 2015. The 1.1320–1.1420 resistance zone would then become the next area to watch for confirmation.

On the downside, the 2026 decline in EUR/USD may represent a three-leg corrective pattern. Using the January, July and August 2026 extremes, the pair is currently testing the 78.6% Fibonacci extension near support at 1.11.

If EUR/USD breaks below 1.11, the 100% extension near 1.10–1.0930 would come into focus. This historical confluence zone could mark either another long-term dip-buying opportunity or a continuation of the euro’s decline within the descending parallel channel in place from 2008 to 2025.

Silver Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Bullish rebounds in silver and gold are moving in tandem with U.S. indices, despite a lack of confirmation from headlines. This may indicate that markets are pricing in a potential de-escalation. A possible 25-basis-point rate hike remains a near-term hurdle, while a sustained bearish shift in crude oil would add technical support to the de-escalation scenario.

Silver’s rebound from the 48.60–49 support zone may mark a longer-term base. This area aligns with:

Multi-month descending support in place since February 2026
Multi-decade resistance turned support, spanning levels from 1980, 2011 and 2025
Daily oversold momentum last seen in 2022

If this support zone gives way, the next key support is near 45, aligning with the October 2025 support. This level is comparable to gold’s recent rebound from 3,870.

On the upside, a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming. A breakout above 54.80 could expose 57 and then the psychological 60 level, where silver would test seven-month descending resistance. A rejection there could renew bearish pressure, while a sustained breakout would strengthen the case for a longer-term bullish shift.

Oversold readings in silver and Nvidia, at levels last seen in 2022, may point to longer-term bullish setups following this year’s steep sell-offs.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.