EURNZD Pullback complete Bears Eye Fresh Lows

Since breaking its bullish trendline last month, EUR/NZD has continued to develop its bearish structure. And with a lower and high in place, we suspect it could be ready for another bearish leg.

At their last monetary policy meeting, RBNZ held rate but left the door open for an August cut, adding a lower OCR may be needed over time. Keeping in mind that they used the word ‘likely’ in the lead up to their 25bps cut in May, further easing in August is not a done deal just yet. Furthermore, we need to see how their quarterly CPI and employment data fares over the next few weeks ahead of their meeting on the 7^th August.Regardless, RBNZ’s slightly dovish hold allowed selling pressure on NZD to subside and has provided bullish opportunities over the near-term.

We remain bearish on GBP/NZD below 1.8960 and its daily tread structure could take it down towards the 1.8604/15 lows. And there’s potential for EUR/NZD to also extend its decline over the near-term.

We can see on the daily chart is closed firmly beneath the bullish trendline on the day RBNZ held rates. Price action has since broken a prior swing low and a recent correction stalled perfectly at the 50% retracement level and 50-day average. Furthermore, a bearish hammer formed and yesterday’s price action has already broken beneath it which suggests a swing high could be in place. Whilst prices trade below 1.7058, the bias is for a move towards the 1.6658/94 lows.

Switching to the four-hour, prices have stabilised above 1.6850 with a series of smaller hammer which could see a minor bounce from current levels. However, given the clear countertrend 3-wave move leading up to a pinbar high, the bias also remains bearish on this timeframe. Therefor we could consider fading into minor rallies below 1.7058 to improve reward to risk potential

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.