Euro high on vaccines

European vaccines will soon be on the move! As discussed yesterday in analysis of EUR/GBP, the European Union expects to have a majority of its citizens vaccinated by the end of June, which ideally could lead to heard immunity sooner than expected for Europe. In addition, although the European Medicines Agency (EMA) found a possible link to very rare cases of unusual blood clots with low blood platelets, they have confirmed that the total benefit-risk remains positive on the AstraZeneca shot. (However, the same time, the UKs medical regulator warned that people aged 18-29 should not use the AstraZeneca vaccine for the same reason). All of this is good news for the Euro as the currency has been depressed lately vs many currencies on news of lockdowns, restrictions, and the slow vaccine rollout. Australia and New Zealand have handled the coronavirus situation particularly well. With the positive European vaccine news, the Euro has some catching up to do vs their currencies!

EUR/AUD had been moving lower since October 2020 in an orderly channel formation. At the beginning of 2020, the pair began making higher lows (holding horizontal support from November 30^th, 2018), forming a descending wedge. In late March, the pair broke above the top downward sloping trendline of the wedge, pulled back to retest the trendline, and today is pushing higher once again.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

On a 240-minute timeframe, EUR/AUD recently broke above a symmetrical triangle and is testing horizontal resistance and the 50% retracement level from the January 29^th highs to the February 24^th lows, near 1.5600. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sits just above and acts as then next level of resistance near 1.5683. Above there, price can run up to the January 29^th highs near 1.5947. However, note that the RSI has moved to overbought territory while price is at resistance on the 240-minute timeframe, indicating the pair may pullback. Support is back at the top triangle trendline near 1.5550. Below there is the bottom upward sloping trendline near 1.5455, then the long-term downward sloping trendline (from the daily) and horizontal support near 1.5350.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

A chart of EUR/NZD looks very similar to that of EUR/AUD. The pair had been moving lower and broke out of a descending wedge on March 23^rd. EUR/NZD then traded up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the October 20^th, 2020 highs to the February 24^th lows, near 1.6971. After a brief pullback, the pair is on the move again and looking to retest those previous highs. Horizontal resistance above there is near 1.7061 and then the 50% retracement from the same time period , near 1.7134.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

The resistance is similar on the daily and the 240-minute timeframes, however, the support levels are clearer on the shorter timeframe. As with EUR/AUD, the RSI on the 240-minute chart is near overbought conditions. The April 5^th lows act as first support near 1.6656, followed by the downward sloping trendline near 1.6500, and then the February 24^th lows near 1.6323.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

If the vaccine news out of Europe continues to be positive, the Euro may continue to move higher vs many of its counterparts, as the currency has been so depressed lately. However, if lockdowns get extended past the end of April or if the vaccine news takes a turn for the worse, the Euro may once again come under pressure.

Learn more about forex trading opportunities.

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.