Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

EUR/USD has declined more than 1.5% from the monthly highs, returning to a confluence support zone anchored by the yearly open and key Fibonacci retracements.
Price remains contained within a descending pitchfork structure, keeping downside pressure intact while this support is tested.
A daily close below this pivot would signal trend resumption toward deeper support, while stabilization above it leaves room for a corrective rebound.
Key event risk ahead with Eurozone PMI & US PCE, GDP & PMI on tap tomorrow.
Resistance ~1.1820s, 1.1850/69 (key), 1.1919- Support 1.1746/71 (key), 1.1686, 1.1646

EUR/USD has retreated from recent highs and is now testing a pivotal structural level that has repeatedly acted as a directional hinge this year. Euro has continued to trade within a multi-week downtrend, and the focus is on how the market behaves at this threshold. With the weekly close approaching, traders will be watching for confirmation of either renewed downside momentum or evidence that the decline is stabilizing. The resolution at this support zone is likely to define the next phase for the Euro in the sessions ahead. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading just above confluent support and to look, “for a reaction off this zone early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1919 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a daily close below 1.1746 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro rallied nearly 1.4% off support in the following days with price registering an intraday high at 1.1928 (close high at 1.1914) before reversing.

The subsequent decline has extended more than 1.5% off the highs and takes EUR/USD back into key support today at 1.1746/70- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the February opening-range low, and the 61.8% retracement of the January range. Once again we are looking for inflection at this pivotal zone into the close of the week for guidance.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the January high. A break / daily close below 1.1746 is needed to mark downtrend resumption with subsequent support objectives seen at the 78.6% retracement at 1.1686 and the 200-day moving average / January low-day close (LDC) at 1.1644/46. The next major technical consideration rests with the December low and the 100% extension of the January decline at 1.1590-1.1612 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial resistance is eyed with the upper parallel, currently near ~1.1820s. Bearish invalidation is now lowered to 1.1850/69- a region defined by the February open, the 2025 high-close, and the objective weekly open. A breach / close above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance remains with the 2025 swing high at 1.1918 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline and the high-day close at 1.2020/42.

Bottom line: Euro is testing pivotal support today and the focus is on a reaction off this mark with the bears vulnerable near-term while above the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.1850 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1746 needed to fuel the next major leg of this decline.

Keep in mind there is key event risk into the close of the week with Eurozone PMI and US PCE, GDP & PMI data on tap tomorrow. GDP is expected to show the US economy grew at an annualized pace of just 3% after a previous print of 4.4%. It is important to note that this data covers the longest US government shut down in history (43days). As such, a stronger than expected print would underscore underlying strength / resilience in the US market and could further fuel the Dollar advance. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.