Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Fades at Major Resistance—Next Move Critical

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

EUR/USD has stalled after a strong rebound, failing to break a major resistance zone for the past four-weeks.
This key pivot-zone has defined market direction for the past eleven-months.
A topside breakout would fuel the March recovery and open further upside while failure to hold support would signal the threat for downtrend resumption
Resistance 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1917, 1.2020- Support ~1.1639, 1.1578/98 (key), 1.1355/94

EUR/USD is showing signs of fatigue after a strong recovery, with price stalling just below a major resistance zone that has acted as a key inflection point in recent months. The inability to break higher highlights a loss of near-term momentum, shifting focus to whether this consolidation resolves lower or if buyers can regain control. The next move is likely to prove decisive in shaping the broader trend heading into May. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was trading, “in a range just below confluent resistance at the median-line - look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, the risk remains weighted to the downside while below the yearly moving average…” Euro broke higher the following week with the rally extending more than 3.8% off the yearly low. The advance faltered at pivotal resistance in mid-April around 1.1746/75- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the 2025 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 high-close. Note that the 61.8% retracement of the yearly pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks. This region has been a critical inflection zone since June, and the focus is on a reaction off this zone heading into May trade.

Initial weekly support now rests with the 52-week moving average, currently near ~1.1639. More meaningful support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March rally and the January close low at 1.1578/98. Note that the median-line rests just lower and a break / close below this slope is needed to fuel resumption of the broader downtrend. Beyond the yearly low, the next major technical consideration rests at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high close, and July swing low at 1.1355/94.

A topside breach / weekly close above this major pivot zone exposes key resistance levels at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance and the 2025 swing high at 1.1917/19 and the 38.2% retracement of broader the 2008 decline at 1.2020. Both these levels remains areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: EUR/USD is trading just below a key pivot zone around the yearly open for a fourth-consecutive week. The focus is on a reaction off this region early in the month with the March rally vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 1.1775 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. labor market reports next week with the ADP employment and the Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. Stay nimble into the May opening-range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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