EURUSD and Nasdaq Outlook: Measuring Downside Volatility Risks

Markets are reassessing downside volatility risks across major asset classes this week, including commodities, indices, and currency pairs. The Nasdaq and EURUSD remain key charts to monitor as traders evaluate whether recent selloffs are creating dip-buying opportunities or signaling the potential for deeper drawdowns ahead.

Both markets face potential headwinds from today's US CPI report, expected to rise towards 4.2%, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global oil supply-demand shock, seasonal liquidity risks during the summer months, and evolving interest rate expectations. In addition, stalled progress toward resolving Middle East conflicts continues to influence market sentiment, valuations, and risk appetite.

Key Levels to Watch

Nasdaq

Support: 28,600 and 28,200
Resistance: 29,200 and 29,800

EURUSD

Short-term support: 1.1480, 1.1400, and 1.1320
Short-term resistance: 1.1680 and 1.1790
Long-term resistance: 1.1860 and 1.1930

Nasdaq Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Nasdaq Remains in Correction Mode

The Nasdaq remains in a corrective phase following the strong rally from March through June. Price action is currently holding near the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the June cycle and remains above the critical 28,200 support zone.

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Key Support Levels to Monitor

Price action continues to fluctuate around the 28,600 level. A renewed breakdown below this area, combined with a sustained move beneath the 28,200 support zone, would reinforce bearish momentum.

Momentum indicators remain below their neutral levels and are approaching yearly oversold conditions, increasing the risk of a decline toward the next key support zones at 27,700 and 27,200. These levels may offer potential dip-buying opportunities should selling pressure accelerate.

Liquidity Risks Around the SpaceX IPO

Additional volatility could emerge as markets prepare for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, which may trigger liquidity rebalancing across equity markets. As one of the largest public offerings in history, with an estimated valuation of $1.75 trillion, the listing could temporarily affect market positioning and risk allocation.

Bullish Scenario: Reclaiming Resistance

If bullish momentum returns and the Nasdaq successfully reclaims the 29,200 and 29,800 resistance zones, attention would shift toward the next upside targets at 30,100 and 30,400.

A sustained breakout above these levels would strengthen the case for a renewed rally toward record highs, potentially opening the path toward the 31,700 region.

EURUSD Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

One-Year Consolidation Remains Intact

EURUSD continues to trade within a year-long consolidation range, with neither bulls nor bears managing a decisive breakout. The broader outlook remains heavily influenced by US dollar strength, inflation trends, and evolving expectations surrounding central bank policy.

Short-Term Resistance Levels

The first resistance levels to monitor are located at 1.1680 and 1.1790.

These areas are likely to determine whether the pair can build enough momentum to challenge the upper boundary of its broader consolidation structure.

Long-Term Resistance Targets

The 1.127 Fibonacci extension of the 2025–2026 cycle points toward major resistance zones at 1.1850 and 1.1930.

A sustained breakout above these levels would expose the pair to the 2021 highs near 1.2100 and 1.2350, followed by the 2018 highs around 1.2580.

Short-Term Support Levels

On the downside, key support levels remain at 1.1480, 1.1400, and 1.1320.

These levels may continue to provide support within the year-long consolidation range. However, a sustained breakdown below this zone would expose longer-term support levels and the 0.272 Fibonacci extension of the broader trend spanning the 2021 high, 2022 low, and 2026 high.

Long-Term Dip-Buying Zone Near 1.10

Should EURUSD break below its consolidation range, the next major support zone would emerge near 1.1000.

This level could become an attractive long-term dip-buying area for investors, particularly if broader macroeconomic conditions begin to favor a weaker US dollar cycle.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

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