EUR/USD Holds Above 16-Year Channel, Nasdaq Eyes NVDIA Earnings

Key Events to Watch:

EU Plans to Fast-Track U.S. Tariff Negotiations
Nasdaq Holds Above 21,000 Ahead of NVIDIA Earnings
EUR/USD Holds Above 16-Year Channel amid Dollar Weakness

Trump’s Negotiation Tactics: Raise the Bar, Extend the Deadline

Following the 50% tariff threat toward the EU, we’re seeing a familiar pattern unfold in 2025: Trump initially raises tariff barriers, only to later extend deadlines, creating space for negotiations. This tactic, now playing out again with the EU, appears geared toward cushioning the economic impact as July approaches.

Despite Risk-Off Headlines, Nasdaq Remains Resilient

AI remains embedded in long-term national strategies across 2030 and beyond, which is keeping tech resilient even amid trade uncertainty and weaker economic data. Renewed AI-related projects between the U.S. and Gulf countries have supported risk appetite in tech, with markets now eyeing NVIDIA’s earnings on Wednesday. Expectations are high, but the announcement could raise volatility risks, particularly heading into Wednesday evening and Thursday's U.S. market open.

EUR/USD Eyes Historical Bullish Breakout as DXY Tests Key Support

The U.S. dollar, pressured by debt concerns, has declined toward critical 2025 lows near the 98 level. Meanwhile, the euro has stabilized near 1.1380, now trading above the upper boundary of a 16-year descending channel originating from the 2008 peak and extending through 2024.

This breakout positions EUR/USD for a potential long-term bullish move—provided the DXY confirms further downside. The dollar index appears to have room to test the lower bound of its own extended channel from the 2008 lows.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The DXY continues to lean lower, with key support levels at 97.80, 96.00, and 94.00. A rebound above 98 and a breakthrough 102 could shift momentum back to the upside, targeting 105 and 107—pulling EUR/USD back within its dominant downtrend channel.

EUR/USD Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

DXY’s recent lows have lifted EUR/USD above the top of its 16-year descending channel—first via an un-sustained wick, and now with a potentially stable hold. A firm monthly close above 1.16 would confirm the breakout, setting sights on highs from 2018 and 2021, between 1.20 and 1.24.

However, a close back below 1.10 would invalidate the breakout and restore the historical bearish structure.

EUR/USD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD continues to follow its 2025 uptrend channel. Near-term resistance is at 1.1380, 1.1430, and 1.1570. A break above these would confirm a bullish breakout heading into H2. On the downside, key pullback levels are 1.1270, 1.1140, and 1.1070. A break below those could extend pressure toward 1.0990 and 1.0890.

Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The Nasdaq remains in a bullish zone above the neckline of a double top pattern that formed between December 2024 and February 2025. Price action is currently consolidating between the 21,500 resistance and the 20,800 support. A clear breakout above 21,500 could push the index toward 22,200 and potentially the next major high near 23,700. Conversely, a decisive close below 20,800–20,600 would signal increased selling pressure, targeting 19,600 and 19,100.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.