- Gold forecast points to further upside while haven demand persists
- $5,000 remains the pivotal psychological and technical floor
- US dollar under mild pressure on tariff uncertainty
Gold was up over 1% at the time of writing, extending its run from the week before when it posted its third consecutive weekly gain in what has been a rather choppy affair. The metal has once again found itself at the centre of the market’s attention, and this time it is all to do with uncertainty over trade and tariffs. Renewed trade tensions and a softer dollar have combined to keep haven flows ticking along nicely, after the US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs – and his response – has reintroduced questions about fiscal strain. This sort of backdrop does not encourage aggressive risk-taking, and we have seen equity markets struggle in a risk-off trade today. Our gold forecast leans slightly bullish for now.
Tarriff uncertainty keeps gold forecast positive
Equities have come under renewed pressure after attempting to steady themselves into Friday’s close. But the weekend announcement of fresh 15% global levies unsettled investors at the start of this week’s trading. Against that backdrop, gold extended its winning run to four sessions, adding more than 1% after securing a third consecutive weekly gain. Importantly, the heavy selling we saw towards the end of January now looks increasingly like a corrective phase rather than the start of something more sinister.
The dollar, meanwhile, has started the week on uncertain footing. Traders are still grappling with what prolonged trade friction could mean for US growth. Add to that lingering geopolitical tensions, including the risk of US military action against Iran, and it’s little surprise that conviction on the long-dollar trade has waned. That dynamic, at least for now, should help underpin gold forecast.
Gold’s weekly hammer demands respect
From a technical perspective, last week’s candle is difficult to ignore (see inset on the chart). Gold settled comfortably above the $5,000 mark and carved out a hammer-like formation on the weekly chart. That structure typically signals firm buying interest after a period of weakness/consolidation — and that is what we appear to be seeing so far into this week’s price action.
The fact that the early part of this week has so far followed through to the upside, this is reinforcing the idea that momentum on XAUUSD has indeed shifted back in favour of the bulls.
Of course, no market moves in a straight line. But in this gold forecast, the path of least resistance still looks higher while daily closes remain above $5,000. Attempting to fade the move at this stage feels premature unless we see clear evidence of technical deterioration.
Key upside markers in focus on XAU/USD
The break above $5,100 is technically significant. That level had capped prices earlier in February, and we now have both daily and weekly closes north of it. In practical terms, that shifts it from resistance to potential support on any pullback.
Looking ahead, $5,290 stands out as the next meaningful reference point. It previously acted as intraday support before giving way during the late-January slide. Markets often revisit such zones, and it would be no surprise to see price gravitate in that direction.
Beyond there, $5,390 comes into view as another notable technical region. If bullish momentum persists, that level could well become the next upside magnet.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Fibonacci retracements of the late-January decline. The 61.8% retracement sits near $5,141 (already tested today), while the 78.6% level comes in around $5,342. These areas may generate friction, particularly if momentum begins to wane.
Downside risks and levels to watch
No gold forecast would be complete without acknowledging the other side of the equation. The $5,000 level is absolutely pivotal. It is psychological, technical, and effectively defines the short-term trend. A sustained move back below it would materially shift the tone.
Friday’s low at $4,982 is even more critical. That is the clear line in the sand for me. A decisive break beneath that level would likely embolden sellers and open the door to a deeper corrective phase.
For now, however, the structure remains constructive. Momentum favours the upside, and buying controlled dips appears the more measured approach. Unless we see a clear fracture below $5,000, this gold forecast continues to tilt cautiously bullish.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
