Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Breakout Delivers Best Week Since January

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold has broken decisively above a multi-week consolidation pattern with XAU/USD rallying more than 10% from the yearly low.
The breakout has already cleared a major technical hurdle, shifting the focus to the yearly downtrend.
Weekly momentum is beginning to improve, but buyers still need follow-through to reinforce the broader recovery.
A hold above former range resistance would strengthen the bullish outlook with key resistance eyed at the yearly downtrend.
Next week's U.S. CPI report could provide the catalyst for gold's next major directional move.
Resistance 4319/19, 4493-4533 (key), 4855/94- Support 4175, 4002/17 (key), 3887

Gold has delivered its strongest weekly advance since January after breaking decisively above a multi-week consolidation pattern, marking the most significant technical development since the March decline began. The rally has already reclaimed a major resistance zone and shifted attention toward the broader yearly downtrend, but buyers still need confirmation that this week's breakout can develop into something more durable. With key inflation data due next week, traders will be watching closely to see whether gold can build on this recovery and validate a more significant low is finally in place. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading within, “a well-defined consolidation pattern just above the yearly lows heading into the August open and the focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead for directional guidance.” The six-week range broke higher this week with the rally extending more than 10.8% off the yearly low. The breakout has already surpassed a major pivot zone and keeps the focus on a potential challenge of the yearly downtrend.

Our initial focus was on the 52-week moving average and the objective yearly open at 4319/30. Both the April channel line and the 25% parallel of the broader uptrend converge on this level and a weekly close keeps this constructive. While daily RSI has now extended to the highest levels since January (above 65), weekly momentum closed neutral (at 50) on Friday. We will want to see some follow through next week and the inflation report may be the catalyst.

Key resistance remains at 4493-4533- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the March decline, and the 2025 high close. The upper parallel of the yearly downtrend converges on this zone over the next few weeks- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the record high-week close (HWC) at 4855/94.

Initial weekly support now rests at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 4175 backed by the late-October and July low-closes at 4002/17. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the yearly downtrend towards the October swing low at 3887 and the lower parallels near ~3700.

Bottom line: Gold has broken out of a multi-week consolidation zone with the advance marking a close above the yearly moving average his week for the first time since June. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4175 IF gold is heading higher on this stretch – look for a larger reaction on rally towards the upper parallel near 4500.

Following last week's weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report, attention now turns to Wednesday's CPI release as the next key test for the Fed's policy outlook. Markets have continued to pare expectations for additional tightening, with Fed funds futures now pricing a 58% probability the Committee remains on hold next month. A softer inflation reading would reinforce that repricing, easing pressure from higher Treasury yields and creating a more constructive environment for gold prices. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here and review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.