Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Charge Uptrend Resistance as Inflection Risk Rises

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices surged more than 7.2% since the start of the year with XAU/USD extending to fresh record highs
While momentum remains supportive of the broader advance, price is approaching a level where inflection risk rises, placing emphasis on the weekly close for confirmation.
Bullish scenario remains viable while above yearly open support, with a sustained close beyond resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.
Resistance 4603 (key), ~4800, 4936– Support 4319 (key), 4112, 4000

Gold is pressing into confluent uptrend resistance, with XAU/USD testing a key technical threshold as the rally extends to fresh record highs. This area is reinforced by multiple long-term projections, making it a key checkpoint for the advance. While the broader structure remains constructive and momentum continues to favor the bulls, the approach into this resistance raises the risk of near-term inflection. The response here—particularly into the weekly close—will be important in determining whether gold can transition into another sustained leg higher or pauses to consolidate after an extended run. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was testing, “resistance at the record high-day close today and the focus is on a reaction off this mark into the close of the year. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4112 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 4356 needed to fuel the next leg of the gold rally.” Gold broke higher into the close of the year with the advance extending more than 11.5% off the December lows.

The rally is now pressing into a zone of confluent resistance this week, marked by the 1.618% extension of the December 2024 advance at 4603. This level is further reinforced by the convergence of the 61.8% parallel of the 2025 pitchfork, and the focus is on potential inflection into this slope in the days ahead. A weekly close above this threshold would be needed to keep the immediate advance intact. Keep in mind the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has been in the overbought condition since September, and the momentum profile remains in favor of the bulls for now. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the upper parallel of the 2025 pitchfork (currently near ~4800) backed by the 2.618% extension of the October advance at 4936 and 5000.

Yearly open support rests at 4319 and is backed by bullish invalidation at the October high-week close at 4112. Note that this level converges on the lower parallel into the close of the month and losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: Gold is attempting to mount confluent uptrend resistance this week and a close above 4603 is needed to keep the bulls in control. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above slope resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of Fed’s preferred inflationary gauge next week with November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on tap Thursday. On the back of this week’s better-than-expected CPI print, the data will be critical in determining the timing of the central bank’s next rate cut. Markets are currently pricing a 65% probability for the first rate cut of the year to be at the June decision, and a slower pace of price growth has the potential to bring expectations closer to April and further fuel the gold rally. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Gold Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.