Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Five Weeks at Support—Breakout Looms

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold has spent five consecutive weeks defending a pivotal support zone near the yearly lows.
Repeated attempts to force a sustained breakdown have failed, raising the risk of a larger price inflection.
The July opening range is forming just above support, increasing the importance of the next directional break.
U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst that resolves the current stalemate.
Resistance 4319, 4492-4540 (key), 4894- Support 4074-4112 (key), 3887, 3570

For more than a month, sellers have repeatedly pressed the same technical floor without securing a decisive weekly breakdown. That resilience has left XAU/USD locked in an increasingly important consolidation as the July opening range develops and the broader March decline begins to lose momentum. With U.S. inflation data due next week, the next move could determine whether Gold is building a durable base or merely pausing before another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading into pivotal support and that, “From a trend standpoint, the threat rises for an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead… From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4074 IF price is heading for a larger recovery with a breach above 4540 needed to suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway.” Despite multiple intraweek attempts, the bears have been unable to mark a weekly close below this key support barrier with the July opening range now taking shape just above. We will be looking for the breakout for guidance here with the March downtrend vulnerable while above this pivot zone.

Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average (currently near ~4272) and is backed closely by medium-term bearish invalidation at the objective yearly open at 4319. Note that channel resistance converges on this level into the close of month. Key resistance remains unchanged at 4493-4540- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the of the March decline, and the 2025 high-close. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March decline, the March low, and the October high-week reversal close (HWC) at 4074-4112. Price has been testing this support barrier for five-weeks now and a break / close below this level could fuel another bout of accelerate losses towards subsequent support objectives at the October swing low at 3887 backed by the trendline confluence near 3700 and the 100% extension at 3570. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is testing pivotal support with price carving the Jul opening-range just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, this support would need to hold IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach / weekly close above the yearly open needed to invalidate the March downtrend.

Highlighting the economic calendar next week will be the release of key U.S. inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. After Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, markets will be closely scrutinizing the data for clues on the future path of monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper rate-hike expectations, easing pressure on bullion and allowing gold to further stabilize above this pivotal support zone. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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