Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 19% After Historic 21% Drop- Bulls Eye Uptrend Resistance

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold is poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance with XAU/USD rallying more than 19% off the February low.
The recovery is now pressing into technical resistance, with lateral barriers just overhead that must be cleared to sustain upside momentum.
Event risk ahead: State of the Union address and US PPI
Resistance 5342/43 (key), 5520-5615, 5768– Support 4894, 4726 (key), 4533

Gold delivered a dramatic reversal this month, recovering sharply after a historic selloff that briefly threatened the broader 2025 uptrend. The rally is now running into uptrend resistance, putting bulls at a make-or-break moment. A sustained push higher would bring record highs back into view, while hesitation here may signal that a broader consolidation phase is still unfolding. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that a, “record-breaking rally has exhausted with a spectacular reversal into the close of the week halting the immediate bull-run. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4604 for the 2025 uptrend to remain viable with a weekly close back above 5K needed to fuel another run at the highs.” XAU/USD plummeted more than 21.3% off the record high in the following days and although intraday rice fell as low as 4402, the bears were unable to secure a close below 4600.

Gold is now poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance with the rally extending more than 19.2% off the monthly low. Weekly RSI remains in deep overbought territory (+79), and the momentum profile continues to favor the bulls, for now.

The advance is testing the median-line of the 2025 pitchfork this week with lateral resistance eyed just higher at 5342/43- a region defined by the 100% extension of the monthly advance, and the 78.6% retracement of the decline off the record high. A topside breach / weekly close above this threshold would threaten another run toward the record high at the 2.618% extension of the December 2024 advance and the 1.618% extension of the August rally at 5520-5615 and the 1.618% extension at 5768.

Weekly support rests with the record high-week close (HWC) / February open at 4894 with bullish invalidation now raised to the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range at 4726. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant turn is underway. Subsequent support objectives seen at the 2025 high close at 4533 and the yearly open at 4319.

Bottom line: A four-week rally is testing uptrend resistance into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4894 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 5343 needed to retest the record high.

Traders will be closely eyeing President Trump’s State of the Union address tonight for potential remarks on key macro and geopolitical issues. Taxes, tariffs, the potential for conflict with Iran and Federal Reserve governance are just some of the key themes traders will be listening for. While State of the Union addresses typically have limited impact on markets, traders have remained on edge since the recent SCOTUS decision and with mid-terms on the horizon, the president may look to bolster support with new policy initiatives.

Keep in mind we also get another inflation update into the close of the week with the January Producer Price Index (PPI) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes her for guidance. I’ll publish an updated Gold Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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