Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Plunges 17% – Key Support Break Sparks Risk

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold collapsed nearly 17% from the monthly high, breaking through multiple support levels on the way down.
The decline has carried XAU/USD into a pivotal support zone near the 2025 high, where the next reaction becomes pivotal.
A sustained move below this level would expose deeper downside targets, while stabilization here could slow the pace of losses.
Resistance 4660/80, 4791-4815 (key), 4996- Support 4533/40 (key), 4319, 4224/51

Gold’s sharp decline has gathered pace, driving prices lower after a decisive break beneath key technical support. The move marks a clear shift in near-term price action, with the selloff extending into a major support zone that could determine the next phase of the trend. Momentum has weakened notably on both daily and weekly charts, underscoring the pressure on the market as it approaches this inflection point. Whether buyers step in at this level or selling continues to accelerate will likely dictate the path for gold in the sessions ahead. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD, “is threatening to mark an outside-weekly reversal off resistance at multi-week highs. The risk remains for further losses near-term within the February uptrend. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4791 IF price is heading higher on this stretch..” Gold prices have now plunged more than 16.9% off the monthly high with the XAU/USD breaking through support today. RSI has dropped to the lowest levels since November of 2024 on both the daily & weekly timeframes and keeps the momentum profile in favor of the bulls for now.

The decline takes price into the next pivotal support today at 4533/40- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the October lows and the 2025 high-day close. Losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses for gold and the immediate focus is on a reaction off this zone today.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD breaking below near-term downtrend support at the February low-day close and the 61.8% extension of the decline off the record high at 4660/80. Look for initial resistance there now and a close below this level is needed to keep the immediate decline viable in the days ahead. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the February advance and the 100% extension of the monthly decline at 4791-4815 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the March opening-range low (ORL) at 4996.

A break / close below 4533 exposes subsequent support objectives at the yearly open at 4319 backed by the 100% extension and the October reversal close at 4224/51. Both levels represent area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold has broken key technical levels on this decline, and the immediate focus is on today’s close with respect to 4660/80 for near-term guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 4815 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 4533 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

The economic calendar is light next week, and the focus will remain on developments out of the Middle East as the Iranian war continues to escalate. Keep an eye on the headlines and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.