Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Surges 17% into Make-or-Break Resistance

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold has rebounded sharply off the 200-day moving average after a sharp decline of more than 24% in March
XAU/USD remains within the monthly downtrend with price now approaching pivotal resistance- inflection risk building
A sustained break above would suggest a more significant low is in place- bulls vulnerable while below
Resistance 4855-4910 (key), 5025, 5133- Support 4669, 4533/40 (key), 4319

Gold has rebounded sharply after a steep corrective decline, shifting near-term momentum as price approaches a critical technical inflection zone. The recovery highlights a potential stabilization in the recent selloff, but the broader outlook remains uncertain as price tests a key resistance area. The reaction here is likely to offer important guidance, with a break higher suggesting a more durable recovery while failure would keep the risk of a deeper pullback in focus. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had broken key support levels and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 4815 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 4533 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Price broke below near-term support the following day with the decline extending more than 24% off the monthly highs to register and intraday low at 4098 two-days later. XAU/USD rebounding sharply just ahead of the 200-day moving average with the subsequent rally now extending nearly 17% off the March low.

The advance is now approaching channel resistance with daily momentum attempting to top 50 for the first time since mid-March. A critical lateral resistance zone is eyed just higher the focus is on a reaction there IF reached to offer guidance here.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March low. The advance is now testing the 75% parallel with the March trendline just higher. Key near-term resistance is eyed at 4855/4910- a region defined by the 100% extension of the recent advance and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and the potential for resumption of the broader uptrend in gold. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record high at 5025 and the 78.6% retracement of the March decline at 5133.

Monthly open support now rests at 4669 with near-term bullish invalidation now set to the 2025 high-day close (HDC) and the 61.8% retracement of the October advance at 5333/40. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days and losses beyond this pivot zone would threaten resumption of the March downtrend. Subsequent support objective rest with the 2026 yearly open at 4319 and the 100% extension of the January decline and the October reversal close at 4224/51. Both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The gold recovery is now approaching downtrend resistance with a major resistance pivot eyed just higher. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4533 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 4910 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind this is s a shortened holiday week with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Later tonight, President Trump will be addressing the nation regarding the ongoing war in Iran. The speech has the potential to impact broader market sentiment and could fuel added volatility in the Asia session. Stay nimble here into the monthly open and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.