Gold $4k Bent but Not Yet Broken on a Weekly Close Basis

Gold Talking Points:

While rate cuts amidst high inflation drove a massive breakout in gold back in 2024 the possibility of inflation-fueled rate hikes has driven a 28% pullback in the metal.
The $4k level was initially taken-out last October as rate cuts fueled the rally but that price has become a massive spot of contention with buyers stepping in on tests below over the past month.

It’s been a brutal four-month stretch for Gold and that statement really can be spanned back to six months, as it was January 29^th when the metal had set its current all-time-high just below $5600/oz. The initial pullback from that move was violent, with prices testing just above the $4400 handle a few days later, but that move was bid as late-stage buyers posed a bounce, and that move inevitably topped out at a lower-high of $5400/oz in early-March.

Since then, sellers have very much been in-charge with lower-lows and lower-highs, but over the past month they’ve largely been stalled as we’ve seen continued buying interest upon tests below the $4k level.

Gold Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold: All About $4k

On the initial approach towards the $4k level back in March, buyers stepped in about $100 before the big figure could come into play. That bounce, like the bounce from the $5600 reversal, was faded by sellers, leaving another lower-high on the chart. In the four months since, buyers have continued to show demand around the $4k level although that’s been slipping of late.

As to where sellers have been showing more aggression, we have lower-highs at both $4200 and $4100 and that sets up for some important context as the $4k support test from the weekly chart has continued, as each of those prices represent waypoints that buyers will need to take out to exhibit greater control of the trend in Gold.

Gold Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Strategy Moving Forward

Last week saw two tests and failures at $4100 following below expected inflation data out of the US, and this further indicates that sellers are using bounces to build positions in the metal. When that sees initial signs of change, then we can begin to plot for bigger picture bullish themes, with that price and $4200 both representing important spots on the chart with which sellers have so far exhibited control.

Outside of that, sellers have an open door to make a move as the daily chart can be argued as a descending triangle formation, which is a bearish continuation pattern marked by horizontal support to go along with lower-highs. The logic being that successive bounces from that horizontal support are bringing less and less buying activity, and a persistent effort from sellers can, eventually, play through to a downside break of that important line-in-the-sand.

In that bearish scenario, spots of prior resistance-turned-support stand out, just below both $3900 and $3800, with the levels specifically plotted at $3895 and $3791.

Gold Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.