Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Poised for June Breakout

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold prices rally exhausts into technical resistance- XAU/USD nearly unchanged in May
XAU/USD bulls eye key support at yearly uptrend- BoC / ECB rate decisions, NFPs on tap
Resistance 3355/81 (key), 3431, 3500- Support 3272/88, 3210/14, 3132/37

Gold prices are poised to close the week down more than 2% with XAU/USD pulling back from technical resistance. While the risk remains for further losses near-term, the focus into the start of the month is on a possible test of support before resumption of the broader uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the short-term gold technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had, “responded to key technical support and the first major test of the November uptrend. Risk for exhaustion / price inflection off this mark in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 3132-3288 range for guidance with the bears vulnerable while above this key support pivot.” Gold broke higher the following week with a rally of more than 7.8% off the monthly low exhausting into confluent resistance this week at 3355/81- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the April decline and the record high-day close (HDC). The focus is on this pullback from resistance and the bulls will need to establish a low ahead of pitchfork support (blue) for the broader yearly advance to remain viable.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading just above near-term support into the close of the week near the 38.2% retracement of the recent rally / monthly open at 3272/88 with key support at 3210/14- a region defined by the 100% extension of the weekly decline and the 61.8% retracement. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold early in the month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 3132/37 and 3018.

A topside breach / close above 3381 would threaten resumption of the broader uptrend towards the record high-close at 2431 and the record high at 3500- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent technical objectives eyed at 3600 and the 3666.

Bottom line: A rebound off uptrend support failed into the median-line and the focus is on this near-term pullback. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 3381 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we are heading into a new month with the Bank of Canada (BoC) & European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the June opening-range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.