Gold technical analysis August 18, 2025
Gold kicked off the week on a steadier footing, recovering losses from Friday’s drop during Asian trade, before erasing those gains by later European trade. The metal slipped 1.8% last week, ending a two-week winning streak, yet prices are still hovering within familiar ranges. In truth, the past three months have seen gold drift sideways, unable to build momentum in either direction. Profit-taking has capped further gains, but ongoing central bank demand, a softer US dollar, and its safe-haven status amid trade disputes and the Ukraine conflict continue to underpin prices near record highs. With the short-term picture lacking clear direction, it may be wiser to step back and assess the longer-term gold technical analysis in trying to determine which direction prices are most likely headed.
Long-term gold technical analysis
Gold’s longer-term trend has been extraordinary, with repeated highs and only brief pauses. The pressing question now is whether this rally still room has to run, or if the market is finally primed for a correction. Momentum indicators have been flashing warnings for a while now, with some monthly candles looking uncomfortably bearish—though crucially, without any follow-through just yet.
In fact, the last three months have produced doji-style candles on the monthly gold chart, often associated with market tops. A decisive break and close below $3,300 would serve as a strong warning signal for traders.
Adding to this, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in overbought territory since April 2024 and now sits above 85, a level not seen since the pandemic rally. The only other comparison in recent memory is 2011, which marked a significant top. Historically, whenever RSI climbs past 80, it tends to precede either a lengthy consolidation or a sharper pullback.
Weekly perspective more supportive
The weekly chart paints a slightly more forgiving picture. Since peaking in April, RSI has cooled from around 80 to 60, not by a sell-off, but through consolidation—a far more bullish signal. Importantly, prices remain well above the 200-week moving average, currently sitting near $2,200, close to the long-term breakout zone around $2,070–$2,075. For prices to reconnect with that level, gold would need to give up nearly a third of its value—an unlikely outcome. More realistically, the moving average may simply catch up as gold consolidates before its next leg higher, which remains my base case.
Gold technical analysis: ley levels to watch
- Near-term support stands at $3,300, followed by $3,100 at the rising trend line, and the key $3,000 psychological level.
- Resistance remains firm at $3,435, with April’s peak at $3,500 the next major hurdle.
In short, our gold technical analysis suggests the metal remains delicately balanced. While haven demand may have plateaued for now, persistent central bank buying and ongoing weakness in US dollar could keep the bulls engaged. For now, I’m leaning towards buying dips—albeit with caution, given the stretched nature of the technicals.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.
The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.
StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.
It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.
Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data
The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.
© FOREX.COM 2026