Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Range Breakout

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

USD/JPY surges more than 1.1% into weekly open- rally halts at range-resistance
USD/JPY breakout imminent in the days ahead- limited event risk on tap (FOMC minutes)
Resistance 146.15 (key), ~148.65/95, 150.88- Support 143.68, 139.58-140.49 (key), 136.51

The Japanese Yen is under assault early in the week with USD/JPY surging into resistance at the top of a multi-week range in price. We are on breakout watch early in the month and the battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was, “trading just above multi-year uptrend support with a tight-range in view early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 143.68-146.15 range for guidance here with the yearly downtrend vulnerable while above the 2021 trendline. Look for the breakout in the days ahead.” The breakout never came- USD/JPY attempted to breach in the following weeks but was unable to mark a close above range resistance (close high registered at 146.09). The range is preserved heading into the start of July with the bulls testing resistance early in the week- watch the close here.

A topside breach exposes 148.65/96- a region defined by the December low, the May high, and the 52-week moving average. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the April advance at 150.88 with a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.62/95 needed to mark resumption of the broader multi-year uptrend in USD/JPY.

A break / weekly close below the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 143.68 would invalidate the 2021 uptrend and threaten another bout of accelerated losses. Key support (multi-year bullish invalidation) rests at the yearly lows near 139.58-140.49- a region defined by the December 2023 & 2024 lows and the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close below needed to mark resumption of the 2024 downtrend. The first major technical consideration rests with the 100% extension at 136.51 in the event of a breakdown.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is testing multi-month range resistance early in the week. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses would need to be limited to the monthly open at 144.07 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 146.15 needed to fuel the next leg higher.

The economic calendar is light this week so look for broader market sentiment to drive here with a steady drip of tariff news early in the session continuing to fuel some volatility. Watch the weekly closes. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook later this week, once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.