Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Coils Below 160—Breakout Setup Builds

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

USD/JPY remains capped below a major resistance zone after a strong prior rally.
Price is consolidating near highs, signaling building pressure within the range.
A breakout above resistance would signal continuation of the broader uptrend while failure risks a pullback within the current consolidation.
Major event risk next week with BoJ & Fed rate decisions and US / Japan CPI
Resistance 160.21/74 (key), 161.95, 163.33- Support 157.70, 156.67, 154.79-155.29(key)

USD/JPY continues to consolidate just below a key resistance zone after a strong advance, with price action reflecting a period of compression near recent highs. The pause in momentum suggests a potential buildup for a larger move, with the broader uptrend still intact for now. The focus shifts to a breakout of this range, which could provide clearer direction for the next phase of price action. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was, “attempting to secure a breakout of the yearly opening-range highs, and the focus is on this push towards 160. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a break of the monthly highs needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/JPY broke higher later that week with price extending more than 5.3% off the March lows to briefly register an intraday high at 160.46 before reversing into the close of the month.

Since then, USD/JPY has been stuck in a range just below confluent resistance at 160.21/74- a region defined by the April 2024 swing high and he 2024 high-week reversal close (HWC). A consolidation is taking shape just below the April opening-range intact heading into next week. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here.

Weekly support rests with the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 157.70. Yearly open support rests just lower at 154.67 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2026 low-week close (LWC) and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 154.79-155.29. Note that basic channel support converges on this level into the monthly cross and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2024 swing high at 161.95 and the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance near 163.33- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is consolidating just below confluent resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the April range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 160.74 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Aside from the barrage of ongoing war headlines, we get the release of rate decisions from the BoJ and the Fed next week with key inflation data on tap Thursday. Stay nimble into this pending breakout and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.