All trading involves risk. Ensure you understand those risks before trading.
All trading involves risk. Ensure you understand those risks before trading.

Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Looms Ahead of Fed

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Short-term Trade Levels

  • USD/JPY recovery coils within May range, below 2025 downtrend resistance
  • USD/JPY breakout looms heading into Fed interest rate decision tomorrow
  • Resistance 146.47, 146.15 (key), 147.25- Support 144.06, 143.05, 142.35 (key)

The U.S. Dollar is poised to mark a third straight daily advance against the Japanese Yen, with USD/JPY rallying more than 1.6%. A consolidation breakout is now in focus as markets await tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook, we noted that USD/JPY had turned from Fibonacci resistance and was, “threatening resumption of the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 147.25 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the monthly range needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Price plunged to the range lows into the start of June with the monthly opening-range preserved just above- looking to the breakout for guidance here in the days ahead with the broader downtrend vulnerable while above monthly lows. 

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY consolidating within the May range with price continuing to straddle with objective monthly open at 144.06. Initial support rests with the May-open at 143.05 and is backed by the May opening-range low (ORL) at 142.35. Ultimately, a break below the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 141.56 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the first major support zone at the December 2023 low / 61.8% retracement of the 2023 rally at 140.25/49- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Resistance is eyed with the June high at 145.47 with a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement at 146.15 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 78.6% retracement at 147.25 and 148.39/65.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is in consolidation above the May lows with the monthly opening-range in view just below downtrend resistance- looking for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 143-handle IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 146.15 ultimately needed fuel the next leg of the advance.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates tomorrow and the focus will be on the updated economic projections on growth, inflation and employment. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© FOREX.COM 2026