Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX’s Winning Streak is in Jeopardy, but the Uptrend is Not

Nasdaq 100 Key Points

Markets are taking this weekend’s US-Iran “setback” and re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz in stride for now.
The Nasdaq 100 has now risen for 13 straight days, the longest such winning streak since 2013
Any overbought pullbacks are likely to find initial support at previous-resistance-turned-support just above 26,000

The “two steps forward, one step back” paradigm between the US and Iran continued this weekend. Following optimistic headlines that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz Friday, we again saw a weekend setback, with Iran closing it back down as a US blockade remained in place. We saw token escalation by both countries Sunday, with Iran firing on two vessels in the Strait, and the US seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.

Against that backdrop, oil prices spiked at the open of Asian session trade this week, but early in the US session, leaders are once again seeking to tamp down tensions ahead of another round of peace talks tomorrow, including US Vice President JD Vance.

Major US indices are taking the headline volatility in stride, seemingly on the belief that there is more progress behind the scenes. Both sides benefit from “talking tough,” but ultimately traders believe that peace will win out, and unless there are definitive signs that is not the case, the path of least resistance for major US stocks will remain to the upside.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

Looking at the chart, the Nasdaq 100 is in the midst of a truly impressive rally. The index has now risen for 13 straight days, the longest such winning streak since 2013. Going back to the creation of the index in 1985, we’ve only seen four prior 13-day winning streaks, including a record 19-day streak back in 1990.

The rally, which has taken the index from below 23,000 to the mid-26K range as of writing, certainly looks long in the tooth, especially given the uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran talks tomorrow, but the broader backdrop remains supportive as we head into what is expected to be another strong earnings season with results from United Airlines, RTX, Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, American Express, Intel and others on tap this week.

From a technical perspective, any overbought pullbacks are likely to find initial support at previous-resistance-turned-support just above 26,000, with only a break below there amid deterioration in the US-Iran talks calling the near-term bullish trend into question.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

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