Oil Price Forecast: WTI Bulls Eye Key Technical Resistance
Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels
- Oil rebounds from multi-year downtrend- rallies more than 17.6% off yearly low
- WTI recovery losing steam ahead of major resistance hurdle- risk for exhaustion / price inflection ahead
- Resistance 65.62-66.31, 70.95-71.90 (key), 78- Support 59.16-60.31, 54.36/48 (key), 51.68
Crude oil prices are off more than 2.6% this week after rebounding nearly 18% off multi-year lows. WTI is now trading just below initial resistance hurdles and the first major test for the bulls- risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection ahead. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
Technical Outlook: Oil pieces rebounded off downtrend support this month after plunging nearly 32% off the yearly highs. The recovery is now approaching confluent downtrend resistance at the median-line near 65.62-66.31- a region defined by the 2020 high and the 2023 close low. Looking for a reaction off this pivot zone IF reached with a breach / close above needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.
Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
A look at the WTI daily chart highlights the magnitude of the monthly decline and recovery. Daily support rests with the 2020 high-week close (HWC) / 100% extension of the 2023 decline at 59.16-60.31- a weekly close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption towards the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline / 2016 high at 54.36/48 (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Subsequent support objectives seen at the June 2019 LDC at 51.68 and the 61.58% retracement of the 2020 rally at 49.44.
Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the monthly lows with the 25% parallel offering support today. The weekly opening-range remains preserved heading into Friday and the immediate focus is on a breakout here for near-term guidance.
A breach / close above the 66.31 would expose the next major technical consideration at 70.96-71.90- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, the 200-day moving average, the August low-day close (LDC) and the 2025 yearly open. Strength beyond this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bottom line: Oil has rebounded off trend support with the recovery now approaching downtrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection into 66. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 59.16 IF oil is heading for a larger recovery on this stretch with a close above the median-line needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Ultimately, a larger rebound may offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend resistance. Watch the weekly close for guidance here.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.
The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.
StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.
It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.
Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data
The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.
© FOREX.COM 2026