Oil Price Forecast: WTI Spills into Pivotal Support– Bears on Notice

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

Oil prices plunge more than 5.7% off the December high with WTI now testing pivotal support
WTI broader downtrend remains intact- focus on a possible inflection off this zone with the immediate short-bias vulnerable while above support
Resistance 58.47, 60.18, 61.43/45 (key), 62.55/90- Support 56.83-57.20 (key), 54.36-55.10, 51.67

Crude oil plunged into support today with WTI now testing a critical pivot-zone at multi-week lows. This region has produced numerous inflections throughout the year, and a reaction here will be key for near-term direction. A sustained break beneath support would open the door for the next major leg lower and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate short-bias may be vulnerable while above this high-stakes inflection point. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that WTI was, “trading just above a critical support zone on building momentum divergence with the weekly opening-range intact just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 60.18 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 56.83 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” The range broke higher the following day with WTI extending more than 5.9% off the November low to briefly register an intraday high at 60.48 before exhausting (close high registered at 60.18). The subsequent reversal has now plunged nearly 5.8% off the December high with price once again approaching key support near the October and November lows. Risk for inflection into this threshold with a break below needed mark resumption of the July downtrend into the close of the year.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the daily chart shows WTI continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-July high with the median-line now converging on key support at 56.84-57.21- a region defined by the 100% extension the June decline, the November swing low, and the 2025 low-close. Looking for a reaction into this pivotal support in the days ahead.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI testing confluent support today in US trade. Monthly open resistance is eyed at 58.47 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the September decline at 60.18. Key resistance / bearish invalidation stands at 61.44/48- a level defined by the 2025 low-week close (LWC), the September low and the November high. A breach / daily close above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and that a larger trend reversal is underway. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the October high at 62.55/90.

A break / close below this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses with subsequent support objectives eyed at the 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 decline, the 2016 high, and the 2025 swing low at 54.36-55.10. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the lower parallel (currently ~53.30s) and the June 2019 low-day close (LDC at 51.68.

Bottom line: Oil is trading into a critical support pivot and while the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, the focus is on inflection into this zone with the immediate short-bias vulnerable while above. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 58.47 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 56.83 still needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline- watch the weekly closes here for guidance.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.