S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead

Equity Indices Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels

U.S. equities were mixed into the close of February with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down 0.93% and 2.3% respectively while the Dow rose just 0.17%.
S&P 500 snaps a nine-week winning streak with price consolidating within the February opening-range, just below resistance- breakout pending.
Nasdaq suffered the largest decline, and the outlook remains vulnerable with the index trading just above uptrend support.
Dow posts tenth consecutive monthly advance with February range intact- breakout pending.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these equity indices and more. Join the session or stream live on YouTube on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Equity Indices Forecast we noted that the S&P 500 was back at, “a key resistance zone that has capped the equity rally since October. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6704 IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6990 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” The index held below key resistance for the entire month at 6927/90- a region defined by the October high, the 2025 high-week close (HWC), the 1.618% extension of the 2025 opening-range, and the January (record) high-close. The SPX500 snapped a nine-month winning streak with the February opening-range intact heading into March. The focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead to offer guidance. Although the broader outlook is still constructive, the advance remains vulnerable while below this key zone.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

A closer look at the S&P 500 daily chart shows the index stalling at resistance into the close of the month with price continuing to consolidate into the apex of a multi-week triangle formation. Support rests with the December low-day close (LDC) at 6770 with key support steady at the 61.8% retracement of the November rally and the December low at 6704/19. Note that the August trendline converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the November LDC at 6617 and the 200-day moving average near ~6581.

A topside breach / daily close above 6690 is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 1.382% extension of the broader 2020 advance near 7138 and the 100% extension of the November rally at 7240.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 is consolidating within the February range. The focus is on a breakout heading into March with the multi-month uptrend vulnerable while below resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6770 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6990 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; NDX on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Nasdaq was the worst performer of the three major indices with a decline of more than 2.3% in February. The index has fallen more than 6.7% off the January high with the bears testing confluent support this month at the 61.8% retracement of the November rally near 24,737. Despite numerous attempts, the index was unable to mark a weekly close below and for now keeps the August uptrend intact heading into March.

Weekly resistance is eyed at the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 25,858 and is backed closely by the 2025 swing high at 26,182 and the 1.618% extension of the broader 2020 advance at 26,609. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A break below the February range low would threaten a larger correction in the Nasdaq. Such a scenario would expose subsequent support objectives at the August high-week close (HWC) and the 23.6% retracement of the 2025 advance at 23,712/907 and the 52-week average near ~23,155. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold early in the month and losses below this level would suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: The tech-heavy Nasdaq remains the most vulnerable of the major indices with price trading just above uptrend support. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the February open at 25,491 IF price is heading for a deeper correction here with a weekly close below 24,736 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Dow Jones Price Chart – DJI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DJI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Dow was the only index to close in the black last month with DJI eking out a gain of just 0.17%. The rally exhausted at confluent resistance mid-month near the 1.618% extension of the 2025 range breakout at 50,272. Since then, price has fallen more than 3.6% with the February opening-range intact heading into March. Look for a breakout to offer guidance here in the weeks ahead.

Initial weekly support rests at the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 48,458 and is backed by the January swing low at 47,853. Note that the August channel line converges on this threshold next week and losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the November low-week close (LWC) at 46,245 which converges on the median-line over the next few weeks. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach / weekly close above 50,272 is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards channel resistance (currently near 50,900). Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at 52,000 and the 3.618% extension of the April advance at 52,951.

Bottom line: The Dow reversed off uptrend resistance this month and the threat remains for a larger pullback within the August channel. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 47,853 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 50,272 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Keep in mind we get the release of ISM data, retail sales, and the highly anticipated February Non-Farm Payroll next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment and CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.forex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 42.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.