Markets are reacting to the rise in US inflation data, with CPI at 3.8%, last seen in 2023, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Key Macro Drivers Impacting Gold & Silver
- Silver’s recent 8% rally toward $86 is challenging gold’s relatively softer price action near 4,700
- Markets are focused on the recent US CPI and its interpretation, with inflation risks skewed higher for longer
- The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions highlighted the near-term possibility of a rate hike, pushing Japanese bond yields toward 2.5%, the highest since 1999, and adding pressure on global bond markets
- US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near yearly highs, weighing on gold below the 4,800 level
- Crude oil prices stabilizing near $100 suggest a prolonged energy recovery, reinforcing inflation and yield expectations—factors that continue to pressure precious metals
From this perspective, silver’s rally may reflect a late-cycle catch-up move, potentially marking a final push higher before aligning with gold if macro pressures intensify. As markets absorb the broader impact of energy-driven inflation, both metals could face downside risks.
Recent insights on gold can be found in the latest StoneX video below.
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Silver Price Action: Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: Trading view
Silver’s bullish rebound from yearly lows near 61 remains intact within a strong uptrend, currently facing resistance near 87. Recent inflation dynamics have triggered a pullback toward the 83 level, now acting as a key pivot.
Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Scenario:
- A breakdown below 83 would increase downside pressure toward 81, 79, and 77, aligning with the lower bound of the prevailing uptrend
- A deeper correction could extend the broader downtrend from February 2026 highs, targeting 70, 63, and potentially 48, presenting longer-term buying opportunities
Bullish Scenario:
- A breakout above 87 would extend gains toward the upper channel resistance near 91.50
- A sustained move higher could trigger a stronger bullish breakout toward the 98–100 zone, although this may also increase the risk of a sharp pullback
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
